World Politics · resolved market
Will Jeannette Jara and Johannes Kaiser advance to the runoff?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b23533b9e3f5e01d0e5853825c6346cbed9c1139d17fbe3b6ee34f7dde2e007
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,105
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,105 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 14c | 9,893$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.56 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7077…92a0backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab61…1137backed Yes | 15c | 1,350$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,249$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.63 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 15c | 804$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.6 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61a7…dd91backed Yes | 3c | 696.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c65…b9eebacked Yes | 15c | 656.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 13c | 433$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.07 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa69…a8cdbacked Yes | 15c | 430.87$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.63 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…40b0backed Yes | 15c | 423.53$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.24 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 15c | 323.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1604…ff0ebacked Yes | 14c | 300$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a59…a364backed Yes | 14c | 299.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0169…0096backed Yes | 17c | 290.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 17c | 258.24$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…0731backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 13c | 165.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa6…4094backed Yes | 16c | 162.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 25c | 133.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…93a4backed Yes | 18c | 109$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9fe…f3bcbacked Yes | 16c | 107.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 14c | 100.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc225…4e1ebacked No | 80c | 99.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed Yes | 15c | 82.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 14c | 80.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 19c | 55.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…ab7abacked No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 78c | 21.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jeannette Jara and Johannes Kaiser advance to the runoff?this page
- Will Evelyn Matthei and Johannes Kaiser advance to the runoff?No won
- Will Jeannette Jara and Evelyn Matthei advance to the runoff?No won
- Will Jeannette Jara and José Antonio Kast advance to the runoff?Yes won
- Will José Antonio Kast and Evelyn Matthei advance to the runoff?No won
- Will José Antonio Kast and Johannes Kaiser advance to the runoff?No won
- Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.