TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Jeannette Jara and José Antonio Kast advance to the runoff?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$79,136
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$92,871

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,136 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf1f9…1245backed No18c3,204$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.7918036.7%66 W · 114 L-0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No16c2,369$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.0325337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No24c2,242$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5386622.7%15 W · 51 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-58.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No18c2,204$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.9148224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63a1…1d4abacked Yes79c2,110$1,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.21250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick79cpaid-36.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6967…84bfbacked Yes80c2,000$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4001827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.4wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-60.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed No17c2,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3301811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-48.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8341…de89backed No19c2,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3802931%9 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea2f…a8efbacked No18c1,586$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.924012.5%5 W · 35 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-49.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c1,391$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.491,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x944e…8c94backed No21c1,261$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.9614240.8%58 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed No18c1,252$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.3610127.7%28 W · 73 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked No18c1,220$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.446737.3%25 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf933…8a76backed No16c1,144$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.511915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-79%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked No20c1,111$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.243243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No8c1,100$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$883630.6%11 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No20c686.38$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.4857636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e6c…fb04backed Yes78c615.38$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.38825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d93…8cbebacked No19c600$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11416940.2%68 W · 101 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee86…c85fbacked No22c600$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1321127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-41.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No15c585.24$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.4237117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked No4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020325.6%52 W · 151 L-0.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No15c500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7516616.9%28 W · 138 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+111.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed Yes76c500$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1194100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+57%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0cf8…cf2dbacked Yes75c430.25$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.842100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+76.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No25c401.92$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.2244921.2%95 W · 354 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No19c389.12$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7232255%177 W · 145 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1513…831abacked No20c350.26$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703528.6%10 W · 25 L-4.6wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-52.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No17c349.99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.517921.2%38 W · 141 L+10.6wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+56.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1aba…c083backed Yes61c303.96$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.98036.3%29 W · 51 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xef28…2d50backed No18c300$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-27.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x300f…d366backed Yes70c281.09$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.692850%14 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6730…d8e3backed Yes80c250.09$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2021…a8d5backed Yes62c250$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.422040%8 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+43.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No15c239.85$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.871,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes79c236.38$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.8331635.1%111 W · 205 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid+6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No27c230$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.736742.5%156 W · 211 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed No32c219.99$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709152.7%48 W · 43 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-7.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x45cf…40b0backed Yes80c203.63$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.972030%6 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-51.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No38c200$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.154850%24 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c37…adf5backed No20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-67.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc9b…f819backed No20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-56.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9fe…f3bcbacked No20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-52.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes73c189.63$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.5945723.2%106 W · 351 L-15.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No21c140.81$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8888448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbea6…aed7backed Yes72c138.75$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No36c136.7$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.251,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes59c133.21$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.522441.7%10 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c86…f1f1backed Yes76c131.3$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a66…020cbacked Yes78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f76…e72bbacked Yes79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.58475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe43f…8150backed Yes79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.58475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+31.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27a0…18d1backed Yes79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.582100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7767…6ec6backed Yes65c122.15$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.791428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-50.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No17c120.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.489942.4%42 W · 57 L-11.0wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-30.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9357…81ddbacked No17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-49.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No23c116.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.728252.4%43 W · 39 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x547f…016dbacked No20c101$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54f5…d9c7backed No18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183420.6%7 W · 27 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-32.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f4b…f9bfbacked Yes60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-61.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d2e…6b6abacked Yes79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed No17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173537.1%13 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3728434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfd…2b70backed No32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3474…0571backed No27c99.98$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.520034%68 W · 132 L+9.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe014…478cbacked No17c89.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.340%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No30c82.84$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.624959.2%29 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ede…c417backed Yes70c72.77$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.62917.2%5 W · 24 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-59.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x80f9…3ab9backed No18c70.71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.072035%7 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-46.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6837…a488backed No19c66.53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.64333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+131.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No21c52.63$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.05326.3%2 W · 30 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-91.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes51c52.63$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.797627.6%21 W · 55 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+40.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0abd…869abacked Yes69c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.51127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x20e5…6b64backed Yes73c43.77$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.64728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-43.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbef6…d98ebacked No35c42.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31a6…000cbacked Yes67c38.45$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.69250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd786…0b16backed Yes74c33.68$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.68560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdff7…4c04backed Yes80c32.7$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabd8…e79abacked Yes80c32.68$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d50…9ff4backed Yes79c31.97$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fe7…f462backed Yes68c30.1$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba79…17f9backed Yes80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7db…d69cbacked Yes78c22.53$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.932050%10 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbe5…72dabacked Yes72c20.83$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.831566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cab…7489backed Yes62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-48%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad61…13b4backed Yes70c17.14$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1cb…3a05backed Yes80c16.84$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4058…7a1ebacked Yes80c15.83$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.