MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b8b501d9a87a478712f724fdd4ef765d6c7159363f96d5296e1b19f7c293fde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof Cincinnati Reds, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,195
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,376
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,195 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c03…522dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 13c | 8,828$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.84 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 23c | 4,584$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.76 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 27c | 1,241$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.44 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 74c | 1,053$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.85 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed St. Louis Cardinals | 68c | 988.83$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.43 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 32c | 840$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.8 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Cincinnati Reds | 32c | 415.75$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.04 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed St. Louis Cardinals | 51c | 220$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.8 | 92 | 59.8%55 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 77c | 168.73$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 70c | 149.96$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed St. Louis Cardinals | 68c | 146.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.95 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 30c | 138$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed St. Louis Cardinals | 70c | 99.97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed St. Louis Cardinals | 69c | 99.33$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 66c | 83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Cincinnati Reds | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 70c | 54.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed St. Louis Cardinals | 68c | 54.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 53.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 50.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3618…b2b2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Cincinnati Reds | 30c | 48.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed St. Louis Cardinals | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed St. Louis Cardinals | 72c | 20.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 68c | 20.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 70c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.