MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0aff4351d355a4c1a2b7767335004d23fa735c12c6b0f4fba535aad6bcf5970d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 65c | 11,396$7,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,989.59 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Under | 37c | 10,069$3,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,725.7 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 35c | 8,505$2,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,976.8 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 65c | 8,157$5,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,855.03 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 62c | 4,757$2,952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,804.88 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 35c | 2,456$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.5 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 65c | 1,749$1,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.14 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 35c | 820.7$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.11 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 35c | 811.2$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.92 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Over | 66c | 600$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 53c | 577.87$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.65 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 35c | 539.86$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.95 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 36c | 360.41$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…b2acbacked Under | 43c | 299.99$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Under | 35c | 285.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 57c | 260.25$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.91 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 34c | 233.17$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.28 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked Over | 63c | 214$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.18 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…c7a2backed Under | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 35c | 196.51$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.78 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 35c | 138$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 63c | 129$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 273 | 48%131 W · 142 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 34c | 104.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 787 | 54.6%430 W · 357 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 63c | 93.5$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.6 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 69c | 86.52$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 63c | 59.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 47c | 54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 62c | 45.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b04…403fbacked Under | 35c | 43.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570b…0bfebacked Over | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 55cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Under | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 370 | 48.9%181 W · 189 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 63c | 29.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Over | 64c | 28.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Over | 57c | 26.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 319 | 57.4%183 W · 136 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Over | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.