MLB · resolved market
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f33b17167623d607dbaf8b14dac8c2e2c523e9f69af28270b7751bcb0c1175b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,636
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,636 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 3,872$2,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,587.77 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 3,526$2,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,494.08 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 2,601$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.47 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79a8…4375backed St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 2,054$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 26c | 1,615$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.07 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b5…2e6dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 1,597$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.85 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 1,495$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.9 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 1,474$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.74 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 1,297$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.74 | 778 | 52.2%406 W · 372 L | +36.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 71c | 1,091$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.63 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed St. Louis Cardinals | 35c | 939.21$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.89 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 78c | 767$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.13 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 708.19$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.44 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef36…85e6backed St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 583.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 543.18$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.54 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 70c | 330.19$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.87 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 230$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed St. Louis Cardinals | 28c | 226.21$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.34 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 173.6$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.65 | 1,040 | 51.8%539 W · 501 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cd…c041backed St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 161$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.72 | 250 | 53.2%133 W · 117 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 159.51$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 124$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 410 | 48.3%198 W · 212 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe66f…0f3ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 121.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 119$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.17 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 114.26$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 106$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 336 | 49.1%165 W · 171 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 82.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 616 | 46.4%286 W · 330 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed St. Louis Cardinals | 42c | 74.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 54.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7f…d002backed St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 48.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fa…d071backed St. Louis Cardinals | 49c | 47.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed St. Louis Cardinals | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 226 | 52.2%118 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 39.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 36.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 33c | 32.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1,947 | 53.1%1,033 W · 914 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 29.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 671 | 52.5%352 W · 319 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5564…345ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 27.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…6307backed St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 27.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -44%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf02…c856backed St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 24.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9077…9c3fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 43c | 24.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcbb…07d9backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 23.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 256 | 55.1%141 W · 115 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Cincinnati Reds | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.