MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12c7c517fe3b896dff0456102d73db242a780ee79c545be317f2a4e61d975808
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,033
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,033 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 57c | 12,955$7,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,572.47 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 44c | 9,165$4,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,032.5 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 43c | 5,500$2,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,365 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 55c | 5,124$2,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,298.84 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 56c | 2,636$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,156.07 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 2,344$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.77 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 44c | 2,154$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.7 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 57c | 2,044$1,165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.98 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 55c | 2,032$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.49 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 57c | 1,405$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.89 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd2…14c2backed Under | 46c | 1,064$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.44 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 42c | 957.72$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.24 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Over | 58c | 900$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 43c | 815$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.45 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 32c | 500$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 54c | 448.89$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.99 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 63c | 435.7$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.37 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 43c | 423.31$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.02 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 67c | 404.38$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.34 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 43c | 397.79$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.05 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 47c | 363.32$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.99 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Under | 42c | 358.35$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.51 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 11c | 307$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…b2acbacked Under | 47c | 245$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.7 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Under | 43c | 232.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 56c | 136$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.84 | 273 | 48%131 W · 142 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 43c | 128.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 55c | 123.4$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.53 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Under | 45c | 122.09$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -6.9wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 48c | 119.38$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 55c | 99.42$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 42c | 84.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Over | 56c | 73.6$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Under | 43c | 65.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Under | 47c | 63.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…6b58backed Over | 62c | 56.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38ba…92f7backed Under | 45c | 55.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Under | 46c | 54.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 52c | 54.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 1,911 | 53.1%1,014 W · 897 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Under | 43c | 53.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d45…1c86backed Over | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 43c | 50.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,803 | 53.8%970 W · 833 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 48c | 49.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 41c | 47.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Under | 48c | 44.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 46c | 44.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfae…155ebacked Over | 49c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 55c | 39.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab1…9678backed Under | 52c | 35.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7f…d002backed Under | 43c | 33.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Under | 49c | 32.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b04…403fbacked Under | 43c | 31.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 55c | 29.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767e…98cabacked Over | 52c | 26.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -45%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Over | 45c | 26.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 486 | 51.6%251 W · 235 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.