MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0806d9065242519976a4d3acd8e438e7228c2d8537156fef93ae5404576c7ec2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $113,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Over | 46c | 31,873$14,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,211.68 | 856 | 45.3%388 W · 468 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 47c | 28,299$13,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,061.27 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 54c | 21,891$11,846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,845.53 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 53c | 17,791$9,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,429.15 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 46c | 8,541$3,928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,612.97 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 45c | 8,428$3,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,635.16 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Over | 46c | 8,000$3,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,320 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 54c | 7,619$4,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,080.45 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 7,042$3,803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,802.66 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Over | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,120 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 55c | 3,936$2,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,148.69 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Over | 45c | 2,837$1,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,560.19 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 74c | 1,802$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340.21 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Under | 54c | 1,500$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.99 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 53c | 1,231$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.77 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de2…11a9backed Over | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.11 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 54c | 1,111$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.94 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 44c | 1,007$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.92 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17af…2a45backed Under | 56c | 817.86$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Over | 49c | 689$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.39 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbee2…6527backed Over | 59c | 677.97$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.97 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 58c | 674.17$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.11 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Over | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Over | 47c | 513.61$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.21 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 54c | 502$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.18 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 707 | 44.7%316 W · 391 L | -22.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 39c | 424.73$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.1 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 55c | 422.31$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.12 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…b2acbacked Under | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b4…7e4abacked Over | 46c | 365.22$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.22 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Over | 44c | 357$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.14 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 53c | 356.21$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.79 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 47c | 292$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.76 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 76c | 267.99$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.32 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 54c | 238$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.88 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 28c | 232.57$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.51 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Under | 56c | 232.14$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Under | 56c | 201.16$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.85 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 10c | 193$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…dd03backed Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 28c | 159.49$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.17 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 45c | 150.01$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.26 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Over | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Under | 53c | 149.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.49 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x054d…97c5backed Under | 78c | 145.92$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.82 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 66c | 135.81$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.77 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 53c | 128$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.84 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 66c | 117$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.39 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 54c | 114.77$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 56c | 110$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 90.24$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8951…e587backed Under | 54c | 88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c03…522dbacked Over | 63c | 86.08$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 732 | 43.4%318 W · 414 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 44c | 72.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 53c | 67.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Under | 56c | 60.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 22c | 55.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3e…637cbacked Over | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Under | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…33dabacked Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x641d…eeedbacked Under | 54c | 43.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 47c | 43.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad1…b4c5backed Over | 47c | 41.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Under | 56c | 40.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07b4…6855backed Under | 51c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…16cfbacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 35c | 33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a98…639dbacked Under | 56c | 30.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 309 | 60.2%186 W · 123 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb989…2166backed Under | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…09f1backed Over | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Under | 54c | 24.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 55c | 23.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.