Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b8b8b68aa6f4c73ad4503242b215a57d6b1111d0a2267cd9069d10568c4361a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 1,425$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.16 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 819.83$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.41 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 55c | 444.12$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.62 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 75c | 402.57$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.52 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 21c | 399.97$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.98 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 15c | 371.18$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.33 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 9c | 325.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 15c | 324.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 314$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.39 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 18c | 266.26$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.33 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked No | 79c | 229.29$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.47 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 13c | 220$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.4 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 9c | 210$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 59c | 201.88$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.17 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 62c | 169.25$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.27 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 15c | 164.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.4 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 28c | 155.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 17c | 147$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.11 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 24c | 139.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.9 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…c545backed Yes | 15c | 110$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.35 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 73c | 96.07$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 17c | 84.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.08 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 17c | 82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.06 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 79c | 80$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.07 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 25c | 79.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.14 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 77.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.73 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 75.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 22c | 66.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d0…d991backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 49.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…eea9backed No | 55c | 47.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 31c | 34.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 80c | 33.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 32.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 76c | 29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9edb…79ebbacked No | 79c | 27.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 76c | 26.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 80c | 23.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 58c | 22.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.