Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91baf59d192aefaafd46bf140157c99ecd6f95e3aecfb9e50d0f5302848ad5c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 41c | 608.48$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.33 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 419.76$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.56 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 61c | 369.62$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.11 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 39c | 264.49$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.87 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 62c | 249.39$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.02 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 61c | 230.19$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.99 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 43c | 209.01$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.27 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 57c | 196.41$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 174.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked Yes | 35c | 165.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.39 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 157$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 41c | 149.95$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.11 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 18c | 140.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 60c | 138.09$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.26 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 137.61$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 28c | 120.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 30c | 117.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 115.83$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 31c | 103.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 39c | 95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 51c | 85.97$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.77 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 59c | 82.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 80.21$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd04…9b27backed No | 68c | 73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 48c | 72.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 68.57$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 40c | 62.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 58c | 57.8$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 40c | 54.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 53.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 51.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 30c | 50.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 61c | 50.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…8e63backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 40c | 49.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 39c | 47.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 61c | 47.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 40c | 47.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked No | 50c | 47.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 67c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 70c | 44.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…1439backed Yes | 45c | 44.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 72c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 54c | 40.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 30c | 40.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 39c | 36.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 36.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 73c | 35.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 60c | 32.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 71c | 32.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 44c | 31.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 35c | 31.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 53c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…1621backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 196 | 63.3%124 W · 72 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 79c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 38c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 63c | 27.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 39c | 27.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…da4bbacked Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9edb…79ebbacked No | 72c | 26.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd3…af33backed No | 64c | 25.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 64c | 21.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 74c | 21.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 52c | 21.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6986…5585backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…61dfbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 58c | 18.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xecc8…9335backed Yes | 64c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 192 | 60.9%117 W · 75 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.