Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x391d5ef038b7f526b3aa9a9ab746542cff36d340db7875abc60a0c856b0cc18f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4441…680abacked Yes | 2c | 1,058$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 568.7$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 452.25$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 369.62$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.29 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 34c | 358.44$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.21 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3156…8f96backed Yes | 27c | 316.32$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.41 | 86 | 20.9%18 W · 68 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 20c | 310.62$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.33 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 59c | 159.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 27c | 157.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 27c | 151.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…2199backed No | 78c | 151$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 67c | 138.09$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.17 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 33c | 129.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 33c | 122.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.34 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 117.04$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 68c | 111.14$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 23c | 109.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 23c | 98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.17 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 65c | 92.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 75c | 92.3$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 90.72$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 35c | 89.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 34c | 82.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…a26fbacked Yes | 33c | 81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 81$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd04…9b27backed No | 67c | 74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 41c | 73.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 29c | 70.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 24c | 65.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…3335backed Yes | 37c | 55.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 68c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 36c | 52.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 20c | 50.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 23c | 44.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 25c | 43.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 75c | 40.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 73c | 37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 36.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked Yes | 33c | 36.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 73c | 32.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 32.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 53c | 31.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 79c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 52c | 28.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 63c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 64c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9edb…79ebbacked No | 73c | 26.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 73c | 26.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…f6e2backed Yes | 46c | 25.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 22.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed No | 63c | 22.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 73c | 20.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 67c | 20.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…1479backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 75c | 18.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 258 | 77.5%200 W · 58 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 71c | 17.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…d8ccbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 120 | 50%60 W · 60 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…acb7backed No | 76c | 14.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 72c | 13.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on July 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.