TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Hurricanes vs. Panthers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Panthersof Hurricanes, Panthers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,500,883
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,521,115

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,500,883 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,008 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7435…a620backed Hurricanes56c323,494$182,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182,082.811376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.24per pick53cpaid+47.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Panthers51c290,360$147,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142,871.5738748.3%187 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x869b…c625backed Hurricanes55c135,947$74,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74,725.414665.2%30 W · 16 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+21.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xff7a…4c4cbacked Hurricanes54c102,252$55,146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55,146.474247.6%20 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9165…5b98backed Hurricanes57c87,082$49,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,811.211955.5%66 W · 53 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Hurricanes56c52,500$29,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,1501,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Panthers45c50,000$22,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,60025449.2%125 W · 129 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Panthers43c44,573$19,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,199.17946.8%37 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked Panthers46c44,572$20,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,069.143743.2%16 W · 21 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Panthers45c42,124$18,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,168.121,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Panthers43c39,569$17,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,554.2488151.2%451 W · 430 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Panthers42c32,532$13,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,707.1448549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd670…b24ebacked Hurricanes55c32,500$17,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,874.82742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Panthers43c29,651$12,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,901.1647951.4%246 W · 233 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Panthers44c25,884$11,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,385.581,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Hurricanes54c20,000$10,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,80042552.2%222 W · 203 L+25.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Panthers45c18,888$8,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,388.3921850.9%111 W · 107 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Hurricanes55c17,057$9,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,381.5293953.6%503 W · 436 L+29.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Panthers45c16,814$7,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,222.5454047.6%257 W · 283 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Panthers45c16,000$7,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,8008952.8%47 W · 42 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c75…8c7abacked Hurricanes2c13,264$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.112123.8%5 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.17per pick41cpaid-48.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Panthers45c13,021$5,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,116.041,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Panthers45c12,250$5,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,737.4922150.2%111 W · 110 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed Panthers45c12,194$5,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,766.9124654.5%134 W · 112 L+9.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01b4…372ebacked Hurricanes1c12,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1202174.1%9 W · 208 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+36.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Panthers45c11,981$5,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,589.8175251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Panthers27c11,277$3,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,234.7826344.5%117 W · 146 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed Panthers45c10,901$4,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,995.755841.4%24 W · 34 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Hurricanes55c10,500$5,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,803.6489547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa42e…9a1cbacked Panthers45c10,241$4,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,652.642050%10 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Panthers44c10,000$4,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,60032946.8%154 W · 175 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Panthers44c9,982$4,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,579.761,67954.4%914 W · 765 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Panthers40c9,777$3,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,881.982,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Hurricanes54c9,504$5,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,132.3419555.4%108 W · 87 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb433…7705backed Hurricanes25c9,500$2,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,38520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Panthers43c9,000$3,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,13015949.7%79 W · 80 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Panthers44c8,888$3,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,977.2316645.8%76 W · 90 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8c6…6382backed Hurricanes56c8,400$4,704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,70410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Panthers46c7,700$3,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,189.9886649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd4b…3a70backed Hurricanes55c7,300$4,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,015250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Panthers45c6,458$2,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,551.967659.2%45 W · 31 L+7.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+29.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x50dd…c186backed Panthers45c6,222$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,4222955.2%16 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked Panthers45c6,021$2,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,311.555259.6%31 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+23.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x25cc…9297backed Panthers43c6,000$2,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,4205448.1%26 W · 28 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd43…5db2backed Hurricanes54c6,000$3,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,239.99425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-64.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3450…6793backed Panthers53c6,000$3,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,834.586833.8%23 W · 45 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Hurricanes0c5,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.51,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Panthers44c5,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,80031654.7%173 W · 143 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbcb9…4734backed Hurricanes1c4,747$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.858543.5%37 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Panthers45c4,444$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,444.4429651.7%153 W · 143 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Panthers33c4,368$1,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,918.1938738%147 W · 240 L-13.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7197…14c8backed Panthers23c4,358$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,355.496254.8%34 W · 28 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+12.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x218f…6494backed Panthers46c4,200$1,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,268250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick38cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd1d…2190backed Panthers36c4,152$1,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,652.77650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2128…4c6dbacked Panthers68c4,065$2,758 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,307.777035.7%25 W · 45 L-9.6wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-30.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x84ec…5696backed Panthers46c4,000$1,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1602100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+89.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec13…862bbacked Hurricanes56c4,000$2,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,239.9922546.2%104 W · 121 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4366…c73ebacked Panthers45c4,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,199.983953.8%21 W · 18 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Panthers44c3,991$1,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,235.098450%42 W · 42 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Panthers47c3,566$1,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,902.1762951.2%322 W · 307 L+18.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Hurricanes5c3,513$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.6829412.9%38 W · 256 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+45.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed Panthers27c3,500$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5555425.9%14 W · 40 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xab0c…e26bbacked Panthers46c3,500$1,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8903100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+100.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe84…a309backed Hurricanes55c3,500$1,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,92520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Panthers44c3,389$1,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,897.6224349.8%121 W · 122 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07fc…7ac6backed Hurricanes55c3,357$1,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,846.341353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb461…76cfbacked Panthers47c3,300$1,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,749650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a6…1dccbacked Hurricanes54c3,300$1,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,782650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+12.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Panthers44c3,200$1,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,80751044.5%227 W · 283 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Panthers45c3,000$1,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,66033652.1%175 W · 161 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9397…ceb4backed Panthers44c3,000$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6802352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Hurricanes56c3,000$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,679.9824945.4%113 W · 136 L-16.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Panthers45c2,925$1,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,608.7557157.8%330 W · 241 L+12.7wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d12…7954backed Panthers47c2,800$1,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4841100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Panthers29c2,792$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,991.9414539.3%57 W · 88 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Panthers45c2,770$1,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,523.510554.3%57 W · 48 L+8.7wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+15.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb2e2…4e99backed Panthers46c2,742$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,491.559846.9%46 W · 52 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0aa3…64e9backed Panthers44c2,716$1,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,521.012343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid+52.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c35…041dbacked Hurricanes53c2,410$1,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,277.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5660…3377backed Panthers45c2,400$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3201100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa99f…9c1ebacked Hurricanes4c2,400$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.8290%0 W · 29 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x05e2…6262backed Panthers47c2,393$1,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,268.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53a9…0d06backed Hurricanes56c2,373$1,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,328.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Panthers44c2,310$1,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,283.4826955.8%150 W · 119 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Panthers40c2,255$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,355.9182043%353 W · 467 L-1.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Panthers51c2,232$1,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,084.866527.7%18 W · 47 L-6.3wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-39.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb40f…a5b1backed Panthers46c2,211$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,193.872445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ea8…ddc0backed Hurricanes56c2,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1206341.3%26 W · 37 L-6.8wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-21.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Panthers43c2,000$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1408845.5%40 W · 48 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5520…32ffbacked Hurricanes2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40130%0 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66ba…621fbacked Hurricanes58c2,000$1,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,159.331764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+22.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e58…3864backed Panthers44c1,991$876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,114.996246.8%29 W · 33 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2a6…d94cbacked Hurricanes53c1,950$1,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Panthers45c1,882$847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,035.179350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Hurricanes54c1,852$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00047256.8%268 W · 204 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6195…0d11backed Panthers47c1,850$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Panthers1c1,831$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,804.51458.3%12 W · 133 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+135.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x283d…0dadbacked Panthers39c1,810$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,110.15248.1%25 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bb8…8fa9backed Panthers45c1,800$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$990250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Panthers46c1,745$803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.6120345.3%92 W · 111 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.