Europa Conference League · resolved market
MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. PFK CSKA Sofia: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bd8384675732acadab91fe215ab4f774441bb117a568439e47381916879af6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,844
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,844 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked Over | 29c | 1,000$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.66 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Under | 70c | 628.69$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.61 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…965abacked Over | 6c | 410.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 83 | 16.9%14 W · 69 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…729cbacked Over | 4c | 342.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47d9…54b7backed Under | 74c | 263.41$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.32 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 78c | 244.19$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 1,219 | 36.3%442 W · 777 L | -18.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 22c | 209$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 1,793 | 54.8%983 W · 810 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 77c | 170$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 209 | 48.8%102 W · 107 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 25c | 126.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 51c | 103.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.98 | 837 | 33%276 W · 561 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f8…4078backed Under | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 50c | 83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 388 | 55.4%215 W · 173 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Under | 76c | 69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b4…7c3fbacked Over | 47c | 67.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 54c | 61.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 53c | 49.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 442 | 51.6%228 W · 214 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 37c | 44.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 23c | 44.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 50c | 41.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 470 | 36%169 W · 301 L | -19.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…a400backed Over | 60c | 38.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Under | 46c | 34.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 270 | 47.4%128 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 50c | 32.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 77c | 32.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…1597backed Under | 70c | 27.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…5fe5backed Under | 45c | 26.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 53cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…0769backed Under | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 57c | 20.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 537 | 47.9%257 W · 280 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. PFK CSKA Sofia: O/U 3.5this page
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. PFK CSKA Sofia: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. PFK CSKA Sofia: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. PFK CSKA Sofia: MH Maccabi Tel Aviv O/U 0.5Under won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. PFK CSKA Sofia: MH Maccabi Tel Aviv O/U 2.5Under won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. PFK CSKA Sofia: O/U 0.5Over won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. PFK CSKA Sofia: O/U 1.5Over won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. PFK CSKA Sofia: O/U 2.5Over won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. PFK CSKA Sofia: O/U 4.5Under won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. PFK CSKA Sofia: PFK CSKA Sofia O/U 0.5Over won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. PFK CSKA Sofia: PFK CSKA Sofia O/U 1.5Over won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. PFK CSKA Sofia: PFK CSKA Sofia O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: MH Maccabi Tel Aviv (-1.5)PFK CSKA Sofia won
- Spread: PFK CSKA Sofia (-1.5)PFK CSKA Sofia won
- Spread: PFK CSKA Sofia (-2.5)PFK CSKA Sofia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.