Europa Conference League · resolved market
MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. PFK CSKA Sofia: 1st Half O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x732701d4639fa92c24fa8fbea69a05e19986ce27af029102a6811a19bd90f506
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,300
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,300 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 33c | 11,864$3,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,900.17 | 376 | 46.5%175 W · 201 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 33c | 8,598$2,794 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,794.46 | 797 | 32.2%257 W · 540 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…b1bebacked Over | 67c | 5,971$3,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,975.48 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0de8…6cf3backed Over | 32c | 5,003$1,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,414.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +121.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb76b…d1f0backed Over | 67c | 3,706$2,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,234.87 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 67c | 2,984$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.72 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +15.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 67c | 2,984$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.72 | 76 | 77.6%59 W · 17 L | +13.5wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 68c | 1,781$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,211.15 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa2…dc0abacked Over | 66c | 1,525$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.23 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 62cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…bf4cbacked Over | 68c | 1,472$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.48 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -56%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 36c | 1,462$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.16 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked Over | 71c | 835.9$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.86 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 68c | 770$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.6 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 69c | 752.74$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.39 | 1,046 | 50.2%525 W · 521 L | +28.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x851b…961ebacked Over | 31c | 367.74$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.74 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Over | 68c | 338.24$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.24 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb763…4a90backed Over | 68c | 338.24$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.24 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Under | 68c | 300$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 51 | 74.5%38 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 68c | 256$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.08 | 1,026 | 47.4%486 W · 540 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ac…f3babacked Over | 68c | 205.15$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.65 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d0…2fefbacked Under | 70c | 196.67$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.67 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 67c | 162.42$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 116 | 74.1%86 W · 30 L | +18.9wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x677e…4a1fbacked Over | 68c | 147.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 68c | 128$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.04 | 275 | 45.8%126 W · 149 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 68c | 117.65$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 31c | 105$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Under | 31c | 101.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 68c | 79.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 795 | 54.1%430 W · 365 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4abb…d858backed Over | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 33c | 71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 69c | 70$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked Under | 70c | 35.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 81 | 69.1%56 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Over | 31c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…d533backed Over | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. PFK CSKA Sofia: 1st Half O/U 1.5this page
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. PFK CSKA Sofia: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. PFK CSKA Sofia: MH Maccabi Tel Aviv O/U 0.5Under won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. PFK CSKA Sofia: MH Maccabi Tel Aviv O/U 2.5Under won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. PFK CSKA Sofia: O/U 0.5Over won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. PFK CSKA Sofia: O/U 1.5Over won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. PFK CSKA Sofia: O/U 2.5Over won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. PFK CSKA Sofia: O/U 3.5Under won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. PFK CSKA Sofia: O/U 4.5Under won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. PFK CSKA Sofia: PFK CSKA Sofia O/U 0.5Over won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. PFK CSKA Sofia: PFK CSKA Sofia O/U 1.5Over won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. PFK CSKA Sofia: PFK CSKA Sofia O/U 2.5Over won
- Spread: MH Maccabi Tel Aviv (-1.5)PFK CSKA Sofia won
- Spread: PFK CSKA Sofia (-1.5)PFK CSKA Sofia won
- Spread: PFK CSKA Sofia (-2.5)PFK CSKA Sofia won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.