Premier League · resolved market
Chelsea FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bd97cf3983fc5034ed94694a4a4f2e84a27c57a803c6bd9aa3e31f3eab70c46
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 11c | 3,177$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.05 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 4c | 2,338$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.8 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 11c | 1,500$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.16 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf7e…339abacked Over | 18c | 1,111$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 16c | 1,100$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…eca8backed Over | 17c | 882.35$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 174 | 28.2%49 W · 125 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 17c | 400$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 17c | 393.65$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.92 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1aa…054ebacked Over | 12c | 119.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ad…69ccbacked Over | 11c | 94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 297 | 35.4%105 W · 192 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 18c | 67.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 222 | 44.1%98 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 891 | 52.9%471 W · 420 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e18…696fbacked Over | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chelsea FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Chelsea FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Chelsea FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Chelsea FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Chelsea FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.