Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfab75ed09a4f143fcfc117f24980c5af969bbaf3a83e2b3e7420ef945c7b990

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Aston Villa FCof Chelsea FC, Aston Villa FC
Resolved: Dec 27, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $34,191
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $36,633

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,191 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x52d8…99aebacked Aston Villa FC	70c	4,864$3,409 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,455.22	99	58.6%58 W · 41 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	59cpaid	-3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Chelsea FC	33c	2,489$824 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$824.27	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa645…0be6backed Chelsea FC	31c	1,932$599 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$599.02	72	30.6%22 W · 50 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-11%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb85…8464backed Aston Villa FC	58c	1,797$1,047 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$749.69	240	47.5%114 W · 126 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Chelsea FC	49c	1,477$726 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$726.37	531	34.5%183 W · 348 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed Chelsea FC	29c	1,073$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.76	459	36.2%166 W · 293 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Chelsea FC	30c	1,067$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	92	44.6%41 W · 51 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Chelsea FC	41c	1,047$434 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$434	2,212	49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L	-9.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Aston Villa FC	66c	949.45$623 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$326.61	2,661	45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L	-11.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc87b…51d4backed Aston Villa FC	57c	876.66$497 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$379.97	26	69.2%18 W · 8 L	+2.3wins	+0.09per pick	60cpaid	+13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Aston Villa FC	70c	654$458 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196.2	1,212	41.7%505 W · 707 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8942…1e76backed Chelsea FC	46c	543.48$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	61	45.9%28 W · 33 L	-6.9wins	-0.11per pick	57cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1c02…7fdcbacked Aston Villa FC	72c	536$385 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150.67	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	70cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Aston Villa FC	69c	500$345 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$155	391	56%219 W · 172 L	+12.8wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6138…97a0backed Aston Villa FC	70c	499.99$350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150	53	39.6%21 W · 32 L	-3.1wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Chelsea FC	36c	453.36$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.25	4,768	41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L	+28.2wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Chelsea FC	44c	416$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.04	66	54.5%36 W · 30 L	+3.4wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe060…fda8backed Aston Villa FC	70c	392.8$275 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.84	81	55.6%45 W · 36 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6894…3a44backed Aston Villa FC	71c	352.11$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.11	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-18%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa122…9847backed Aston Villa FC	70c	342.86$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.86	48	39.6%19 W · 29 L	-7.9wins	-0.17per pick	56cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Chelsea FC	29c	332.97$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.56	212	53.8%114 W · 98 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Chelsea FC	31c	322.58$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	380	40.5%154 W · 226 L	-15.9wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-11%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Aston Villa FC	69c	316$218 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.96	722	49.9%360 W · 362 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87e8…5e6ebacked Aston Villa FC	70c	285.71$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.71	28	53.6%15 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x739d…d2ffbacked Chelsea FC	31c	241.94$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	66	27.3%18 W · 48 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Chelsea FC	30c	225$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.5	1,264	33.7%426 W · 838 L	+13.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Chelsea FC	21c	196.87$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.73	1,938	42.5%823 W · 1,115 L	-41.5wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa47f…dfb1backed Chelsea FC	31c	193.55$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	53	35.8%19 W · 34 L	+4.9wins	+0.09per pick	27cpaid	+59.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x41ce…6509backed Aston Villa FC	57c	175.44$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.44	43	48.8%21 W · 22 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2eae…a25fbacked Aston Villa FC	72c	173.61$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.61	360	36.1%130 W · 230 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Chelsea FC	28c	171.04$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.89	584	45.9%268 W · 316 L	-8.8wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4948…08bdbacked Chelsea FC	31c	161.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x571e…67b2backed Chelsea FC	31c	161.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	117	36.8%43 W · 74 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x385e…3896backed Chelsea FC	33c	151.52$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	118	39%46 W · 72 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfadf…dda0backed Aston Villa FC	70c	147.14$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.14	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-2.5wins	-0.21per pick	46cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x68cc…d976backed Aston Villa FC	69c	144.93$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.93	82	59.8%49 W · 33 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Aston Villa FC	71c	140.85$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.85	77	46.8%36 W · 41 L	+4.3wins	+0.06per pick	41cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4f8…97b3backed Aston Villa FC	70c	134.29$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.29	34	64.7%22 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	66cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8e3…05e1backed Chelsea FC	31c	129.03$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	126	47.6%60 W · 66 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4f9…5526backed Aston Villa FC	70c	126$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.8	37	51.4%19 W · 18 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a50…6c6bbacked Chelsea FC	32c	118.75$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	83	32.5%27 W · 56 L	-11.4wins	-0.14per pick	46cpaid	-19%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x68e0…a3a6backed Aston Villa FC	70c	106$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.8	42	57.1%24 W · 18 L	+2.8wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed Chelsea FC	31c	100.51$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.15	161	36.6%59 W · 102 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1986…cf16backed Aston Villa FC	57c	86.74$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.3	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x979f…4e13backed Aston Villa FC	69c	72.46$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.46	44	40.9%18 W · 26 L	-6.5wins	-0.15per pick	56cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2d4c…2e02backed Aston Villa FC	71c	70.42$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.42	117	55.6%65 W · 52 L	-6.9wins	-0.06per pick	61cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2000…df78backed Chelsea FC	30c	70$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	-2.3wins	-0.09per pick	36cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd62d…02ccbacked Aston Villa FC	67c	62.75$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.75	134	50.7%68 W · 66 L	-6.2wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb01…2783backed Chelsea FC	28c	60$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	284	58.8%167 W · 117 L	+16.1wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Chelsea FC	30c	59.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	365	45.2%165 W · 200 L	-14.0wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd612…0bc1backed Aston Villa FC	70c	45.83$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.83	172	54.1%93 W · 79 L	-7.4wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc287…8487backed Aston Villa FC	70c	44.77$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.43	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	60cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0df8…3e3dbacked Chelsea FC	43c	43.06$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.47	104	33.7%35 W · 69 L	-4.8wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e7d…eedcbacked Aston Villa FC	70c	42.86$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.86	82	42.7%35 W · 47 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdd4…7696backed Chelsea FC	31c	37.45$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.61	146	43.2%63 W · 83 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Chelsea FC	30c	33.68$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	1,006	46.6%469 W · 537 L	-20.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3bf…762dbacked Aston Villa FC	69c	30$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.15	15	60%9 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	66cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc263…9325backed Aston Villa FC	70c	28.57$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.57	40	50%20 W · 20 L	-6.6wins	-0.17per pick	67cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x450e…c1dfbacked Aston Villa FC	71c	28.17$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.17	63	61.9%39 W · 24 L	+5.1wins	+0.08per pick	54cpaid	+16%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb1f4…4763backed Aston Villa FC	71c	27.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.07	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+1.2wins	+0.11per pick	53cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xedc6…314abacked Aston Villa FC	72c	27.78$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.78	55	54.5%30 W · 25 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd94a…fd69backed Aston Villa FC	68c	26.26$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.35	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.54per pick	46cpaid	+191.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd854…924fbacked Aston Villa FC	70c	23$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.9	20	65%13 W · 7 L	+2.6wins	+0.13per pick	52cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3fb9…1591backed Chelsea FC	46c	22.33$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.27	112	55.4%62 W · 50 L	+6.1wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7cb8…7529backed Aston Villa FC	69c	21.74$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.74	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-3.0wins	-0.19per pick	57cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x06ac…0df2backed Aston Villa FC	71c	21.13$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.13	31	54.8%17 W · 14 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x145a…8946backed Aston Villa FC	71c	20$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.8	5	100%5 W · 0 L	+1.7wins	+0.33per pick	67cpaid	+50.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3013…e5b2backed Aston Villa FC	53c	19.71$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.21	88	42%37 W · 51 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc297…b0d2backed Aston Villa FC	70c	19.61$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.88	15	66.7%10 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	66cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c49…ca9dbacked Aston Villa FC	75c	15$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.75	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-3.4wins	-0.12per pick	51cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)this page
Chelsea FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Chelsea FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5Over won
Chelsea FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5Over won
Chelsea FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Chelsea FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event