Premier League · resolved market
Chelsea FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9162941c0e9998be0ee2f7f04d9130f2fd5c224be2a6a93d7d966b27ffc62265
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x11e2…26ccbacked Under | 21c | 18,000$3,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,779.98 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x439b…2c9abacked Over | 80c | 6,023$4,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,204.5 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 79c | 4,397$3,453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.21 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Over | 78c | 3,000$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e1…e25abacked Over | 79c | 2,286$1,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dd…171dbacked Over | 79c | 2,278$1,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.48 | 48 | 81.3%39 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Under | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 192 | 39.1%75 W · 117 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Over | 79c | 1,773$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.27 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 80c | 1,642$1,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.4 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 22c | 1,500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.99 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 73c | 1,324$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.05 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 1,195$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.16 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 20c | 894$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.8 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 79c | 648.1$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.1 | 171 | 61.4%105 W · 66 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 21c | 617.81$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.74 | 722 | 49.9%360 W · 362 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 79c | 608.47$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe733…0accbacked Under | 35c | 573.34$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 79c | 569.62$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.62 | 152 | 63.2%96 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 78c | 512.82$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.82 | 321 | 64.5%207 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c8…aaccbacked Over | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…eca8backed Under | 23c | 435.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.06 | 174 | 28.2%49 W · 125 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…d45ebacked Over | 80c | 322.99$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.6 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 373 | 42.6%159 W · 214 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 180 | 59.4%107 W · 73 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 20c | 207$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…0adbbacked Under | 22c | 206.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 109 | 56%61 W · 48 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca6…0d08backed Over | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 306 | 45.8%140 W · 166 L | -11.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Under | 14c | 195$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | -11.9wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x07ce…75e0backed Over | 79c | 180.1$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 17c | 169.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 20c | 165.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 290 | 41.7%121 W · 169 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…762dbacked Over | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Over | 79c | 145.57$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…f2f7backed Over | 79c | 145.57$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 74cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Over | 79c | 127.65$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfab8…c3b0backed Over | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 76c | 122.87$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 577 | 44.4%256 W · 321 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8dd…ddbcbacked Over | 78c | 116$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 25c | 110.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…078cbacked Over | 78c | 102.55$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 75cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 395 | 61.3%242 W · 153 L | -21.3wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 82 | 59.8%49 W · 33 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Under | 22c | 89.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 360 | 36.1%130 W · 230 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 20c | 80.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 1,006 | 46.6%469 W · 537 L | -20.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd612…0bc1backed Over | 79c | 69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 172 | 54.1%93 W · 79 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Under | 27c | 65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Over | 78c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 412 | 60.2%248 W · 164 L | +22.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95d0…9bf3backed Over | 80c | 63.75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7805…ead7backed Over | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 79c | 63.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2a…37f4backed Over | 78c | 61.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a11…4b2abacked Over | 78c | 56.73$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Under | 22c | 55.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Under | 19c | 54.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Over | 79c | 50.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | -16.7wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7689…dd2bbacked Over | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcf…20aebacked Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xede6…89c4backed Over | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4da9…ad9ebacked Over | 78c | 46.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecd8…c2e3backed Over | 68c | 45.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Under | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 161 | 36.6%59 W · 102 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ba…960fbacked Over | 78c | 43.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…1591backed Over | 73c | 41.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3df…3e0cbacked Over | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked Over | 74c | 28.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbf…98b6backed Over | 79c | 28.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…f32cbacked Over | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2990…da92backed Over | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2764…f8d1backed Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7db1…2941backed Over | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…e8a8backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24b8…6a66backed Over | 79c | 22.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -7.5wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Over | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 126 | 47.6%60 W · 66 L | +9.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 78c | 19.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 365 | 45.2%165 W · 200 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb063…c9d1backed Over | 66c | 19.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…9e83backed Over | 76c | 18.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Over | 79c | 15.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 271 | 73.8%200 W · 71 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 76cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed Over | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +4.6wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chelsea FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Chelsea FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Chelsea FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Chelsea FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Chelsea FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.