Earnings · resolved market
Will Lockheed Martin (LMT) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bdfdafb55585818a9db78b389288144dd959625eed189778bf0491970c59d7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,232
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,908
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,232 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed No | 27c | 1,048$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.42 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Yes | 68c | 915.1$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.97 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed No | 18c | 821.66$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.99 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed No | 42c | 731.74$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.13 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 44cpaid | -61%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc31d…4ebebacked No | 23c | 533.63$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.73 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 78c | 464.35$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.41 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked Yes | 78c | 463.5$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.51 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 21c | 450$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked No | 33c | 400$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 22c | 400$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f88…bd2bbacked No | 28c | 389.64$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.79 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 64c | 367.97$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.13 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19c0…38c8backed Yes | 75c | 326.67$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 76cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 23c | 317.63$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.47 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 19c | 296.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 333 | 24.9%83 W · 250 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e5…fd88backed Yes | 59c | 246.34$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.61 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f19…3aedbacked Yes | 77c | 233.77$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.77 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0b…fb1abacked Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 68c | 166.34$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.23 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcebf…9e38backed Yes | 75c | 161.33$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 77cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…c2f4backed No | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed Yes | 78c | 155$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 98 | 66.3%65 W · 33 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3d…14f2backed Yes | 71c | 153.55$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda53…9209backed Yes | 78c | 152.55$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 79c | 149.82$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc12a…dc73backed Yes | 69c | 145.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a7…2bdcbacked Yes | 75c | 128.7$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 79c | 123$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0190…afdbbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93c4…dca6backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a28…0972backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 74cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…c4edbacked No | 18c | 95.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 27c | 68.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3eaa…721bbacked Yes | 77c | 68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 27c | 66.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c4…1932backed Yes | 71c | 57.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8f…1134backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc047…fecbbacked No | 32c | 46.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d66…7befbacked Yes | 77c | 46.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x381c…8da4backed No | 31c | 43.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x751d…daeebacked Yes | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked Yes | 63c | 38.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…be99backed Yes | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3291…660cbacked Yes | 74c | 35.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 77cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2106…4deabacked Yes | 79c | 32.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3757…fd24backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…92febacked Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55b5…d7adbacked Yes | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 63 | 71.4%45 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…5543backed Yes | 77c | 18.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.