World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6be97f339cd5ebf018e2ca02369f075c1c75aa3f41ca8eb1a500a98a16d2cf52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 6c | 471.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 147 | 17%25 W · 122 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 62c | 396.65$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.73 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 33c | 293.41$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6af…d575backed Yes | 8c | 266.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 38c | 258.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.67 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed Yes | 6c | 245.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 100 | 73%73 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 4c | 244.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 20c | 239.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 471 | 37.6%177 W · 294 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 5c | 200.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 235 | 11.9%28 W · 207 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 75c | 191.8$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 108 | 68.5%74 W · 34 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 23c | 171.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 154 | 21.4%33 W · 121 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…2286backed Yes | 18c | 127.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 79c | 118$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…c1c8backed Yes | 14c | 113.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 76c | 108.77$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 58 | 84.5%49 W · 9 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 98.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 341 | 40.2%137 W · 204 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 98.75$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 20c | 89.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 18c | 88.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 27c | 85.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 74c | 83.76$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 73c | 72.39$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 214 | 64%137 W · 77 L | +15.4wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 29c | 68.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 73c | 66.52$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 69c | 63.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 22c | 54.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 26c | 53.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 25c | 51.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 119 | 42%50 W · 69 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…8929backed Yes | 29c | 51.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 71c | 51.18$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 20c | 50.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec3…d814backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d43…9719backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 25c | 45.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 34c | 43.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 319 | 53.3%170 W · 149 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 39.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 553 | 51.2%283 W · 270 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 75c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 80c | 38.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 247 | 60.3%149 W · 98 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 79c | 34.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 34.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 187 | 34.8%65 W · 122 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa393…fabebacked No | 77c | 25.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 75cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 79c | 25.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 164 | 55.5%91 W · 73 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 76c | 23.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 63c | 23.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460f…6c79backed No | 66c | 21.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x965b…e530backed No | 71c | 20.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298d…6e93backed No | 73c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 78c | 20.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…b105backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 43 | 86%37 W · 6 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 74cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 80c | 19.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 174 | 59.8%104 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 61c | 19.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 80c | 16.26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 179 | 52%93 W · 86 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa2…b5cebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C or below on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.