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World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 25?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,118
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,019

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,118 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd36…a832backed Yes34c2,033$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.993644.4%16 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1703…1f9bbacked Yes2c638.82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8690%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No65c407.93$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.7530944%136 W · 173 L-23.3wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-22.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes20c388.3$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.2947137.6%177 W · 294 L+29.6wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+28.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No74c317.58$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.6412258.2%71 W · 51 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a81…6cf9backed No61c251.27$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.994323.3%10 W · 33 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick17cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes22c227.32$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0914717%25 W · 122 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick11cpaid+57.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x09b4…e56dbacked No71c222.82$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.936046.7%28 W · 32 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes7c215.42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1523511.9%28 W · 207 L+0.2wins0.00per pick12cpaid+7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6235…7a5ebacked No69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb76a…d7ebbacked No76c145.21$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.031866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+10.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed Yes18c138$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8410454.8%57 W · 47 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-13.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc85b…ba1bbacked No69c137$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.671573.3%11 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes31c133.77$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.474122%9 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed Yes11c132.83$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.07955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec90…fd41backed Yes39c130$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.71145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+55.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaddf…b8febacked No67c129.99$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.92454.2%13 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95d3…6effbacked No69c127.82$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.673554.3%19 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+24.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No71c126.67$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.8121464%137 W · 77 L+15.4wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+19.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No65c123.07$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.0734140.2%137 W · 204 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes14c111.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2526136.8%96 W · 165 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No73c106.22$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9810073%73 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No74c105.5$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8317055.3%94 W · 76 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No68c105$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8133855.3%187 W · 151 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes19c102.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.865736.8%21 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No67c99.27$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3719949.2%98 W · 101 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes17c91.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.758248.8%40 W · 42 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf46…1d91backed Yes40c90.83$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.473630.6%11 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc839…bd21backed Yes16c88.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.531442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-25.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes33c86.59$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6213235.6%47 W · 85 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5824…19d5backed Yes39c79$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.811643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick36cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6546…04e1backed Yes36c78.69$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286642.4%28 W · 38 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ae3…372abacked Yes15c78.28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.442343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+22.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No67c70.89$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0716455.5%91 W · 73 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes34c70$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.817537.7%66 W · 109 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No74c69.38$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7155351.2%283 W · 270 L+23.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes32c68.07$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7815421.4%33 W · 121 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc67e…8929backed Yes31c63.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+73.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8e2…c595backed No80c62.65$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.655151%26 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3990…06bebacked Yes32c59.17$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.652825%7 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcaa4…eae5backed Yes18c57$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+50.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f1d…56a3backed No64c56.18$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.46666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes30c55.35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.818734.8%65 W · 122 L-0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes37c54.25$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010357.3%59 W · 44 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No68c53.72$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.214872.9%35 W · 13 L+6.7wins+0.14per pick59cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No68c52.29$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8117459.8%104 W · 70 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeec7…2fa1backed No65c50.51$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152937.9%11 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+63.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No68c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.025742.1%24 W · 33 L-7.0wins-0.12per pick54cpaid-22.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfca6…6595backed Yes32c48.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.431080%8 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+25.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No64c48$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.3631953.3%170 W · 149 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No68c46$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7215454.5%84 W · 70 L-9.5wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No63c44.9$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.817051.4%36 W · 34 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed Yes28c42.85$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1211942%50 W · 69 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+29.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No59c42.44$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.41968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+18.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No71c41.54$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0417952%93 W · 86 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes42c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.83426.5%9 W · 25 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-43.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No62c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.224760.3%149 W · 98 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes30c39.93$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.841,35044.4%600 W · 750 L-22.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No65c32$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1422955.5%127 W · 102 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed No66c31.61$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.844564.4%29 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No78c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5537458%217 W · 157 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c63…8448backed Yes41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.28683.7%72 W · 14 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick76cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes34c29$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109637.5%36 W · 60 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No70c28.37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5618053.3%96 W · 84 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa393…fabebacked No71c27.76$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.051788.2%15 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick75cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7353…b6c5backed No73c27.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61dd…cbd8backed No65c25.25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No61c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8536755.3%203 W · 164 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8192…871ebacked No61c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.75966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick64cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…443bbacked No72c24.63$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No62c24.42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.2516357.1%93 W · 70 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No73c24.31$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5717954.2%97 W · 82 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33ab…149bbacked No66c23.82$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.11471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1c…3f79backed No76c23.7$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.694766%31 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No62c23.14$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6936154.8%198 W · 163 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa51…6199backed No73c22.52$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.086269.4%43 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick72cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No68c21.27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8717750.8%90 W · 87 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29ef…dddabacked No66c20.9$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.113655.6%20 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No64c20.38$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.278556.5%48 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No62c20.31$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6325652%133 W · 123 L-0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3d2…6efcbacked No78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.37922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727255.9%152 W · 120 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.67277.8%56 W · 16 L+10.9wins+0.15per pick63cpaid+28.9%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x0022…c966backed No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No77c19.72$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.598359%49 W · 34 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+26%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No61c19.37$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.6217654.5%96 W · 80 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a93…24e0backed No74c18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.612470.8%17 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9a…0cd4backed No70c17.49$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.311346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0aa…3259backed No63c16.98$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.28666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick68cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked No71c16.23$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.7113100%13 W · 0 L+3.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No71c15.31$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.4615954.7%87 W · 72 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.