World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ecac5ccc2307c604c7e4ca3817391b15994c1133d83fbd9579bec313c511e5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 18c | 3,421$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,789.99 | 100 | 24%24 W · 76 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 24c | 985.54$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.27 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 409.47$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | +14.6wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +26%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 28c | 398.52$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.1 | 147 | 17%25 W · 122 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 27c | 352.71$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.81 | 199 | 49.2%98 W · 101 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 347.9$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.81 | 309 | 44%136 W · 173 L | -23.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9447…48d6backed Yes | 6c | 337.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +243.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 5c | 260.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.54 | 471 | 37.6%177 W · 294 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 62c | 257.66$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.17 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 30c | 213.68$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +26%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 68c | 195.69$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.79 | 114 | 53.5%61 W · 53 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 27c | 181.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.86 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 18c | 180.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.69 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb76a…d7ebbacked Yes | 30c | 172.39$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.67 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 27c | 168.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 12c | 143.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.91 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 140.19$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.58 | 100 | 73%73 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 77c | 135.28$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.17 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 39c | 127.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.34 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 120$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.41 | 338 | 55.3%187 W · 151 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 23c | 113.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 176 | 54.5%96 W · 80 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 108.38$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 436 | 49.5%216 W · 220 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 101$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.63 | 1,350 | 44.4%600 W · 750 L | -22.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 190 | 45.3%86 W · 104 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 35c | 97.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6b…3a4cbacked Yes | 37c | 93.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +167%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 13c | 84.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.43 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 79.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 553 | 51.2%283 W · 270 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 46c | 77.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.68 | 157 | 54.1%85 W · 72 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 62c | 74.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.46 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 33c | 64.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 70c | 62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 65c | 61.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 60.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 256 | 52%133 W · 123 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 59.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 20c | 59.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.44 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3079…7b77backed Yes | 80c | 57.47$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 35c | 55.37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 44c | 51.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 45c | 51.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81c5…9d28backed Yes | 23c | 50.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +341%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 59c | 48.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 67c | 47.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 39c | 46.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742a…fa07backed Yes | 39c | 45.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 23c | 45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 63c | 44.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51df…8605backed Yes | 49c | 44.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 30c | 44.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 48c | 43.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 168 | 51.2%86 W · 82 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4868…a1c1backed No | 80c | 40.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +10.9wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 86 | 83.7%72 W · 14 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb72d…6ca8backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 374 | 58%217 W · 157 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 70c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 34c | 36.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 154 | 21.4%33 W · 121 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 46c | 34.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 164 | 55.5%91 W · 73 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 42c | 33.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 32.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 463 | 29.4%136 W · 327 L | -69.9wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x402f…6d99backed Yes | 68c | 29.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 50c | 29.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 61c | 26.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -7.3wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 74c | 26.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 102 | 30.4%31 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 131 | 40.5%53 W · 78 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 77c | 23.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 78c | 23.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 54c | 22.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 229 | 55.5%127 W · 102 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 64c | 18.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x383a…a20cbacked No | 78c | 18.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0d…98d2backed No | 62c | 17.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Yes | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 79c | 13.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a28…035bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 80cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C or below on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.