World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d3fe2e9e95f71987e5818f560f0d55283f0798f9f60914b40925a8b72eebd83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 8c | 953.23$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 147 | 17%25 W · 122 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 30c | 601.48$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.2 | 100 | 24%24 W · 76 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 34c | 505.2$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 21c | 468$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.46 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 74c | 337.25$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.98 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 300.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.55 | 471 | 37.6%177 W · 294 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 280.39$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.51 | 309 | 44%136 W · 173 L | -23.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 29c | 280$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.09 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 15c | 268.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 12c | 264.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x568f…74f7backed Yes | 6c | 243.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 223.69$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.47 | 106 | 14.2%15 W · 91 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 33c | 206.62$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.18 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +25%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 200.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 187 | 34.8%65 W · 122 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 69c | 199.23$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.76 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6293…675fbacked Yes | 31c | 185.89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 15c | 180$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417f…d9a9backed Yes | 41c | 159.95$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.58 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…1d91backed Yes | 18c | 150.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 20c | 140$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 154 | 21.4%33 W · 121 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 119.35$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 214 | 64%137 W · 77 L | +15.4wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 76c | 113.62$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 103$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 1,350 | 44.4%600 W · 750 L | -22.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 102.98$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 247 | 60.3%149 W · 98 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 154 | 41.6%64 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca1…7e1ebacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1703…1f9bbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 68c | 97.94$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 24c | 92.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 16c | 91.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 20c | 90.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…3c03backed Yes | 28c | 85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 31c | 80.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…2286backed Yes | 25c | 80.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 190 | 37.9%72 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 16c | 77.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 75.05$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 319 | 53.3%170 W · 149 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0458…ddc2backed Yes | 35c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859c…6eafbacked Yes | 23c | 74.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 175 | 37.7%66 W · 109 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 32c | 69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 68.37$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 436 | 49.5%216 W · 220 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 40c | 66.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 77c | 61.84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | -8.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,437 | 10.2%147 W · 1,290 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 18c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 25c | 59.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc839…bd21backed Yes | 35c | 57.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 32c | 50.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 189 | 56.6%107 W · 82 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6235…7a5ebacked No | 67c | 49.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 76c | 48.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 176 | 54.5%96 W · 80 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 74c | 46.69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 71c | 43.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 76c | 43.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 179 | 52%93 W · 86 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 79c | 43.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed Yes | 32c | 40.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25cd…0a0dbacked Yes | 32c | 39.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72d…6ca8backed Yes | 31c | 39.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 28c | 37.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 374 | 58%217 W · 157 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 31c | 35.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 78c | 35.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 164 | 55.5%91 W · 73 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…ea1bbacked No | 80c | 34.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 80c | 34.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 74c | 33.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 68c | 31.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 65c | 30.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +10.9wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 86 | 83.7%72 W · 14 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 77c | 28.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 102 | 30.4%31 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 229 | 55.5%127 W · 102 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 367 | 55.3%203 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16da…daa5backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 186 | 53.2%99 W · 87 L | -14.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18cf…7439backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 19.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 463 | 29.4%136 W · 327 L | -69.9wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 361 | 54.8%198 W · 163 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 79c | 14.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.96 | 119 | 42%50 W · 69 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C or below on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.