Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bede342015cf2679afac733e91c76032fdf50ee564be0a49d6ea1964eb311f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 49c | 1,404$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.3 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 56c | 475.04$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.16 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 55c | 461.5$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 367.76$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f25…5490backed Yes | 80c | 354.28$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.32 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 16c | 318.41$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 55c | 293.92$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.45 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 28c | 270.32$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x530f…424ebacked No | 53c | 233$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.45 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 221.72$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.4 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 52c | 210.65$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.7 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 53c | 198.36$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.41 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 197.12$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.6 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32c8…6352backed No | 53c | 189.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 35c | 188.65$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.45 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5a…bc49backed No | 53c | 188$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.64 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 54c | 159.35$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 127$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 126.75$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.03 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 51c | 118.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 50c | 112$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 26c | 101.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 50c | 95.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 50c | 87.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 52c | 87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 52c | 84.36$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6248…27f6backed No | 61c | 81.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 71c | 81.13$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 53c | 81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 40c | 79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.33 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 50c | 77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 49c | 75.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 51c | 74.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.15 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…bf2abacked No | 53c | 66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…7980backed Yes | 33c | 64.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 32c | 62.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.11 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 47c | 58.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 50c | 51.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked Yes | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf97a…3269backed No | 66c | 47.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa775…acbbbacked No | 51c | 47.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 32c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 41.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 48c | 39.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 74c | 39.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 42c | 39.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 26c | 39.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 56c | 37.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 45c | 37.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 53c | 37.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 49c | 37.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 37c | 33.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97bd…f2adbacked No | 66c | 33.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55a1…9379backed No | 61c | 32.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 44c | 31.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…3c16backed Yes | 63c | 31.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked Yes | 40c | 31.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…b1b2backed No | 51c | 30.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 64c | 29.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 36c | 28.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 47c | 27.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…8f49backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 53c | 24.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…4d47backed Yes | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 75c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked No | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5f…6c06backed Yes | 49c | 20.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56e7…a35dbacked Yes | 73c | 20.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 69c | 18.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf147…791ebacked No | 75c | 18.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 75cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.