Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c0a4420e812c6b7cda80ec39374bc06b12a6a811defdf2100243a23ea35ba04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf352…a070backed Yes | 43c | 539.96$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.24 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 71c | 279.9$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 69c | 252.65$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.37 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 61c | 241.86$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.66 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 230$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.34 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 43c | 202.47$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.29 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 30c | 177.23$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 175.4$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.54 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 70c | 149.77$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.61 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 69c | 145.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.52 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Yes | 47c | 145.13$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 54c | 143.4$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.64 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 75c | 142.7$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.6 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 52c | 134.61$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.28 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 49c | 132$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.34 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 40c | 127.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.44 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 46c | 110$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa297…2574backed Yes | 79c | 108.74$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 103.8$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 20c | 98.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.6 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 12c | 95.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.68 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 53c | 91.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 43c | 89.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 39c | 89.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 48c | 85.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 55c | 83.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.01 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 62c | 75.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 48c | 74.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 63c | 73.87$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 53c | 73.86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 50c | 72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 46c | 70.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 23c | 68.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 77c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 43c | 62.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 54c | 60.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 18c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 49c | 58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…9da2backed Yes | 26c | 57.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | +12.1wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 32c | 56.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 59c | 56.31$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 54c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 61c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 52c | 53.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…1d7bbacked Yes | 58c | 51.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 66c | 50.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 65c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 51c | 49.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 71c | 47.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 52c | 44.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2474…ec29backed No | 57c | 42.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 35c | 38.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 54c | 32.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 63c | 31.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 62c | 31.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 57c | 30.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 59c | 29.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 38c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 46c | 27.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 56c | 26.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 47c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked No | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f9…8739backed No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.5wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x18e8…fc2dbacked No | 52c | 21.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -64%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 61c | 19.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecf…c85dbacked Yes | 59c | 19.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 67c | 16.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C or higher on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.