Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3005b34545f3b7cba935fb1e60cd9273c48e5e34e9c7969d9193efb658df497
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 3c | 2,591$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.2 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 11c | 554.35$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.36 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf352…a070backed Yes | 5c | 459$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.64 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 6c | 416.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 27c | 406.43$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.43 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 13c | 377.01$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecf…c85dbacked No | 7c | 335.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 5c | 275$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.99 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 27c | 269.37$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.38 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 22c | 247.51$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 245.4$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.36 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 40c | 242.89$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.13 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 8c | 228.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 42c | 222.61$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.13 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 11c | 208$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.99 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 33c | 193.89$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.95 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 193.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 43c | 180.49$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.14 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 8c | 175.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.04 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 31c | 166.01$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.75 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 33c | 150.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 9c | 143.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.92 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 9c | 128.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.23 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 37c | 120.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 53c | 113.52$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 10c | 109.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.26 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 12c | 108.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 14c | 107.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.13 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 39c | 96.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 45c | 84.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…1d7bbacked Yes | 36c | 76.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 72.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 26c | 67.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 67.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 28c | 64.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 65c | 60.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4653…fc2bbacked Yes | 46c | 37.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 50c | 33.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 59c | 30.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…d496backed Yes | 37c | 30.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 45c | 22.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked Yes | 77c | 22.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 51c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4b…488bbacked No | 78c | 12.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 73cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C or higher on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.