Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdad7076a4253ff3bd3df3818b4e824ed1719d2d4d6000fba729a24f320dfc7c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 64c | 431.6$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.47 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 363.8$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.28 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 50c | 278.37$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.53 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 230.4$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.27 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 56c | 226.99$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.24 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 73c | 216.21$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.3 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 59c | 187$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 48c | 170.5$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.25 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 74c | 169.11$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed No | 68c | 162.86$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 61c | 162$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.53 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 36c | 138.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 64c | 135.26$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 37c | 122.88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 71c | 122.6$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 42c | 110$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 46c | 108.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 33c | 101$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 49c | 100.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…9ac2backed No | 72c | 77.94$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 80c | 76.9$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x591c…619fbacked Yes | 37c | 75.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 41c | 73.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 76c | 64.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 63.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9704…c785backed No | 80c | 62.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 51c | 62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 67c | 58.49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 30c | 55.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 74c | 55.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 36c | 55.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 61c | 54.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 53.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…7451backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6192…48efbacked Yes | 29c | 47.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 31c | 45.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 31c | 44.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…91e2backed No | 62c | 43.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 27c | 41.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 27c | 41.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 39c | 41.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 51c | 41.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…1d7bbacked Yes | 36c | 40.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked No | 69c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 34c | 39.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 40c | 39.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 29c | 35.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 50c | 35.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 31.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 35c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21bc…1fe9backed Yes | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 76c | 28.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe801…764fbacked No | 68c | 27.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 48c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97bd…f2adbacked No | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 63c | 19.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 58c | 18.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C or higher on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.