Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c15e3b66a26b15e745c5fefb9b07e5b187c11f003e85cd953b6040ff6f85acf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,706 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 11c | 702.26$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 11c | 636.34$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 21c | 431.61$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.61 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 21c | 399.98$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…66f8backed Yes | 53c | 255.87$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.95 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b1…9b3ebacked No | 79c | 252.18$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 21c | 246.43$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.63 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 230.2$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 15c | 189.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 186$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 17c | 179.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 53c | 175$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…c5eabacked Yes | 11c | 174.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed No | 67c | 162.16$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.97 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 37c | 157.4$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 51c | 141.65$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.89 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 30c | 136.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 132.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 14c | 131.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 57c | 124.96$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33b6…597bbacked Yes | 36c | 110.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6516…7b7cbacked No | 78c | 110.34$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 23c | 102.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 53c | 100.03$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 18c | 99.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 97.38$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 50c | 96.93$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.93 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 78c | 95.82$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 14c | 76.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 41c | 75.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 29c | 69.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 61c | 68.75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 17c | 59.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 17c | 59.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x101b…ea62backed Yes | 67c | 59.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47cd…1f8bbacked No | 76c | 55.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ca…d385backed Yes | 49c | 50.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae2…b101backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 51c | 47.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 29c | 46.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 31c | 44.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked No | 74c | 42.21$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 49c | 41.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 58c | 32.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 39c | 29.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed No | 69c | 28.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x73ff…9ffabacked Yes | 58c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 59c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 76c | 20.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 10°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on March 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.