Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd34a6978e9be943f180e5d57477c540986c05592f13da7f67be4cd03102b7dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,079 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 30c | 2,104$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.91 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 73c | 1,147$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.41 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,110$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 11c | 981.17$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.71 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 8c | 938.65$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.77 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 10c | 892.29$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.7 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 9c | 668.48$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 404.54$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.22 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 18c | 377.24$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.46 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 74c | 368.63$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.18 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 312.8$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.76 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 29c | 292.67$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.76 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 287.67$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 15c | 230.73$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…96f4backed Yes | 33c | 214.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.97 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3906…f74bbacked Yes | 27c | 208.2$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 25c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 7c | 192.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 7c | 173.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 13c | 152.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 74c | 148.82$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes | 10c | 144.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 76c | 130$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 18c | 127.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…0b94backed Yes | 11c | 119.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 14c | 106.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4a17backed Yes | 10c | 101.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d37…cd5dbacked Yes | 32c | 93.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 11c | 92.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 13c | 87.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 19c | 79.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 28c | 71.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 21c | 61.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 29c | 53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae7…80fcbacked No | 69c | 44.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 63c | 40.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b7…9843backed Yes | 30c | 35.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +157.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd549…cbddbacked No | 76c | 33.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7805…55d2backed No | 79c | 28.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 74c | 25.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x990f…e9eebacked No | 79c | 21.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 72c | 21.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 64c | 16.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 10°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on March 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.