Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8441e5470322b0b13065f2288c1da6a5e147276d62bb8f6e531ccd66ada246e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,816 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04db…f0fdbacked No | 1c | 1,407$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 64c | 1,127$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.12 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 25c | 1,107$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.94 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 10c | 787.52$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.74 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e84…d064backed No | 4c | 661.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 53c | 386.8$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.93 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2b…b2aebacked No | 53c | 315.9$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.89 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 312.66$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.84 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 7c | 295.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 6c | 295.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 78c | 272.53$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.87 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 256.5$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 61c | 229.29$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.5 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 35c | 215.98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.28 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed Yes | 66c | 196.5$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.9 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 55c | 184.12$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.98 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 46c | 169.28$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.62 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bba6backed No | 8c | 167$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 25c | 160.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed No | 41c | 148.13$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 41c | 147.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.99 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 139.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 138.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.14 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e20…0815backed Yes | 79c | 127.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…0b94backed Yes | 36c | 123.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.42 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 63c | 119.11$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 45c | 117.85$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 69c | 113.5$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x203e…b7e1backed No | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 32c | 95.04$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.38 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 64c | 90.77$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.93 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 77c | 90.45$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 79c | 85$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 62c | 83$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 55c | 82.51$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 38c | 78.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x101b…ea62backed Yes | 53c | 75.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 27c | 75.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 66c | 69.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 35c | 69.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 68c | 69.06$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 53c | 61.15$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 22c | 60.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…b844backed Yes | 74c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2de…8209backed Yes | 57c | 52.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff78…df44backed Yes | 76c | 51.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +16.2wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked No | 64c | 51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ca…d385backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 62c | 48.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…e34bbacked No | 58c | 41.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 42c | 41.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.45 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 37c | 40.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 33c | 39.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 69c | 37.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 33c | 35.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 66c | 33.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfe…b4f9backed No | 55c | 30.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Yes | 76c | 29.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 40c | 28.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 64c | 19.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4a…1de1backed Yes | 80c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5be4…3128backed No | 65c | 18.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Yes | 76c | 15.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 77c | 15.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed Yes | 74c | 13.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4a17backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 10°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.