Golf · resolved market

Will Jon Rahm finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 The Open Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c6961a3b8d60cfc6ac31eb112bb28a09c950b86c4fa01780a07e94b27c11bc5

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,038
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,023

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,038 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Golf
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8469…dab0backed Yes	50c	399$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.98	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked No	49c	122.1$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.44	137	39.4%54 W · 83 L	+5.1wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b34…b202backed No	62c	100$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38	97	42.3%41 W · 56 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5102…7b08backed Yes	28c	100$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.12per pick	51cpaid	+18%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Yes	47c	94.03$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.19	52	26.9%14 W · 38 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No	72c	66.57$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.64	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	-4.1wins	-0.16per pick	43cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Yes	28c	63$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.64	225	46.7%105 W · 120 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes	50c	50.78$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.39	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-1.6wins	-0.14per pick	50cpaid	-40%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a20…89d2backed No	51c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.5	16	81.3%13 W · 3 L	+3.0wins	+0.19per pick	63cpaid	+39.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed No	51c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.5	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c9b6backed No	51c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.5	11	81.8%9 W · 2 L	+3.0wins	+0.28per pick	54cpaid	+66.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5bc5…c64dbacked No	62c	18$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.84	102	68.6%70 W · 32 L	+14.0wins	+0.14per pick	55cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 49 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Jon Rahm finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 The Open Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event