Golf · resolved market

Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 The Open Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ac16d42d023dc4c4cb73518247fe839a2a1d5561965ab7c27b69e1615ed2764

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $5,704
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $5,849

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,704 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Golf
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xccf1…25a0backed No	75c	2,560$1,926 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$634.01	120	57.5%69 W · 51 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb143…cadebacked Yes	20c	1,833$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360.36	62	14.5%9 W · 53 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes	40c	1,000$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	117	12%14 W · 103 L	-23.7wins	-0.20per pick	32cpaid	-73.3%equal weight	31-0.17 edge/pick
0x929a…a3d8backed Yes	40c	644.49$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.3	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed Yes	26c	476$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.52	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	+2.7wins	+0.10per pick	28cpaid	+78.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No	72c	399.99$290 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110	83	43.4%36 W · 47 L	-8.6wins	-0.10per pick	54cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf006…bb6cbacked No	61c	305$185 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120	95	54.7%52 W · 43 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked No	63c	297.6$187 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110.33	137	39.4%54 W · 83 L	+5.1wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed No	72c	258.48$186 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.28	43	79.1%34 W · 9 L	+8.6wins	+0.20per pick	59cpaid	+42.6%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No	59c	219.89$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.16	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40d5…acd1backed Yes	56c	200$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	75	29.3%22 W · 53 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No	74c	100$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	-4.1wins	-0.16per pick	43cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8f73…bb9ebacked No	60c	87.97$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.19	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked No	60c	83.41$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.62	233	19.3%45 W · 188 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x524a…3bb2backed Yes	40c	79.03$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.61	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+31.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes	17c	75.8$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.84	116	8.6%10 W · 106 L	+3.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+133.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x946e…9749backed Yes	27c	74.07$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.13per pick	24cpaid	+95%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	60c	55$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22	67	46.3%31 W · 36 L	-2.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e35…8fa4backed Yes	39c	50.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	-72.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	61c	50.1$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.54	40	35%14 W · 26 L	-2.8wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No	61c	50$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.5	105	46.7%49 W · 56 L	-3.4wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked No	72c	45$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.6	97	47.4%46 W · 51 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	27c	44$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	295	3.7%11 W · 284 L	-5.4wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-73.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb9f…65ffbacked Yes	49c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.16per pick	41cpaid	-59%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No	64c	30$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.8	55	40%22 W · 33 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb53…2860backed Yes	40c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 49 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 The Open Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event