NBA · resolved market
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c72c03a08b11e4ce130cba587fd1b252e9bfc97d2a55e01f33404bdaee334d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $818,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $818,086 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Under | 52c | 201,432$104,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104,732.88 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Over | 48c | 157,579$75,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81,941.08 | 292 | 45.5%133 W · 159 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c8…f293backed Over | 48c | 85,805$41,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44,618.6 | 286 | 43%123 W · 163 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 52c | 59,903$31,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,149.56 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f45…a321backed Under | 53c | 11,371$6,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,026.83 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x410d…d831backed Over | 48c | 11,257$5,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,853.64 | 113 | 35.4%40 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 48c | 10,748$5,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,158.99 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c75…329abacked Over | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,800 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Over | 49c | 8,073$3,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,128.44 | 773 | 48.5%375 W · 398 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 6,074$2,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,215.01 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 4c | 4,956$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.38 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Over | 48c | 4,427$2,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,302.66 | 378 | 42.9%162 W · 216 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Under | 7c | 4,242$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.07 | 263 | 37.3%98 W · 165 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb4…832bbacked Under | 53c | 3,073$1,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,628.44 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 52cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 48c | 1,625$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845 | 348 | 51.7%180 W · 168 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Over | 51c | 1,200$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…3653backed Over | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 159 | 52.8%84 W · 75 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 49c | 760.17$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.13 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…3de8backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 12c | 501.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 279 | 37.3%104 W · 175 L | +57.6wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +187%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Under | 10c | 489$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 240 | 44.6%107 W · 133 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2271…8170backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 181 | 47%85 W · 96 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 55c | 363$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.65 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 50c | 234$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 48c | 208.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 553 | 47.9%265 W · 288 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…763bbacked Over | 50c | 198$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 337 | 48.1%162 W · 175 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Under | 40c | 166.81$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.52 | 150 | 38%57 W · 93 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Over | 50c | 150.15$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.08 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d24…9c89backed Under | 49c | 142$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.58 | 187 | 44.4%83 W · 104 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 47c | 88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Over | 48c | 87.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 456 | 51.1%233 W · 223 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 49c | 80.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe05f…1fe3backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 71c | 25.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 331 | 59.2%196 W · 135 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 78c | 13.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Nuggets won
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Trail Blazers won
- Cameron Johnson: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Christian Braun: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Donovan Clingan: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
- Jerami Grant: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Jerami Grant: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 10.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-14.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-9.5)Nuggets won
- Trail Blazers vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 241.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 242.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 253.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 255.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 256.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 257.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 258.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.