NBA · resolved market
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82a43d38ed1ec14dc9affac7c77c89cf2efa6858d7fdc126fe1bac4f0d7e6b63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $138,873 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 51c | 28,694$14,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,595.93 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Under | 54c | 26,894$14,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,521.5 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 49c | 25,000$12,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,750 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Over | 46c | 18,505$8,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,992.7 | 292 | 45.5%133 W · 159 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 47c | 12,680$5,912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,768.31 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc949…fa93backed Under | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,299.89 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc7…0602backed Over | 49c | 5,776$2,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,945.94 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 47c | 5,040$2,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,658.71 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Under | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 48c | 3,763$1,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,956.67 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Under | 51c | 3,401$1,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,734.57 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 48c | 1,797$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.53 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…9bdabacked Over | 53c | 943.4$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.4 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 49c | 800$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…4b6fbacked Over | 48c | 600$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 114 | 47.4%54 W · 60 L | -11.8wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -17%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 51c | 534.32$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.5 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 48c | 500.21$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.11 | 369 | 49.6%183 W · 186 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Under | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 52c | 490.55$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.09 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 49c | 457$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.07 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 52c | 425.18$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.86 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…ac1cbacked Under | 15c | 328$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 240 | 44.6%107 W · 133 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 48c | 307.8$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.06 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…bac1backed Over | 49c | 287.14$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.44 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 52c | 238$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.76 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb996…038cbacked Under | 52c | 212$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.24 | 131 | 48.9%64 W · 67 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbb…39dabacked Over | 46c | 191.2$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.25 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Under | 54c | 191.2$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.25 | 898 | 53.1%477 W · 421 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 15c | 186.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 279 | 37.3%104 W · 175 L | +57.6wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +187%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Under | 31c | 179.48$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.74 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d24…9c89backed Under | 52c | 160$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 187 | 44.4%83 W · 104 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Over | 46c | 150.15$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.08 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbd…b8d3backed Over | 49c | 149.88$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 672 | 48.8%328 W · 344 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Under | 45c | 142.09$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.94 | 150 | 38%57 W · 93 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Over | 48c | 135.41$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.41 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 51c | 134.8$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.78 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Over | 48c | 130.15$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.13 | 390 | 55.6%217 W · 173 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 49c | 108.29$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.23 | 890 | 48.8%434 W · 456 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Under | 52c | 86.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Over | 46c | 72.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 388 | 53.4%207 W · 181 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 47c | 72.17$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf93e…96eabacked Under | 52c | 53.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 129 | 49.6%64 W · 65 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc03a…d7c4backed Over | 49c | 50.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Under | 53c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked Under | 52c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 462 | 55.6%257 W · 205 L | +22.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Under | 31c | 40.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 156 | 63.5%99 W · 57 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…0f05backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…7d23backed Under | 52c | 30.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 116 | 61.2%71 W · 45 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x987b…f2d3backed Over | 77c | 26.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cdf…31e7backed Under | 52c | 24.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 238.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)Nuggets won
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Trail Blazers won
- Cameron Johnson: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Christian Braun: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Deni Avdija: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Donovan Clingan: Rebounds O/U 11.5Yes won
- Jerami Grant: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Jerami Grant: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 10.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-14.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-8.5)Nuggets won
- Spread: Nuggets (-9.5)Nuggets won
- Trail Blazers vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: 1H MoneylineNuggets won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 122.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 123.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 237.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 239.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 240.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 241.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 242.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 253.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 255.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 256.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 257.5Under won
- Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets: O/U 258.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.