Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 39°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cac2b4e4ad1269fa9c6824250255651ab65199faa16219406307e3c0d593bc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 10c | 1,557$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.02 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 696.76$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.1 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 24c | 299.15$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.12 | 646 | 24.5%158 W · 488 L | -19.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0d…0885backed Yes | 21c | 255.74$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.38 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 195.21$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.48 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 25c | 166.32$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.81 | 767 | 27%207 W · 560 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 75c | 160.05$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.5 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 148.14$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.82 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 55c | 142.1$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.06 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 79c | 140.51$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.81 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 127.14$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.69 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 122.43$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No | 10c | 121$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…e48bbacked No | 73c | 120$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 25c | 111.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.17 | 542 | 38.9%211 W · 331 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…3dfdbacked No | 78c | 102.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 156 | 78.2%122 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 72c | 95.37$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.41 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 94.02$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 36c | 80.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 1,458 | 27.8%406 W · 1,052 L | +77.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed Yes | 28c | 75.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.61 | 152 | 53.9%82 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 60c | 75.38$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 68.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.6 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 76c | 65$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked No | 76c | 65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 30c | 64.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 71c | 61.88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 26c | 60.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.46 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 23c | 55.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 300 | 41%123 W · 177 L | +26.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 172 | 34.9%60 W · 112 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 74c | 45.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 45.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 72c | 44.45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 57c | 41.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes | 28c | 40.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 65c | 37.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 77c | 34.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 168 | 63.7%107 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 72c | 34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 74c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 26.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 65c | 26.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -19.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 62c | 25.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 73c | 24.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b4…624ebacked Yes | 63c | 24.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 73c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 74c | 23.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 57c | 20.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 942 | 2.4%23 W · 919 L | -388.2wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 5-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…e969backed No | 76c | 20.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 62c | 19.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 63c | 19.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 76c | 18.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 76c | 16.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 571 | 58.1%332 W · 239 L | -28.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 428 | 62.1%266 W · 162 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…91b2backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 706 | 75.5%533 W · 173 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 39°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.