Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f0ecec709a0b5ff6afdd2afb9a1cec1859f110a139ab803b02de21257f84a56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,985
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 73c | 401$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.36 | 83 | 80.7%67 W · 16 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 70cpaid | +16%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 29c | 315.63$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.33 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 79c | 254.07$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 477 | 58.7%280 W · 197 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e79…6a5abacked Yes | 21c | 201.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 13c | 200.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 1,102 | 51.7%570 W · 532 L | +74.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 27c | 186.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 646 | 24.5%158 W · 488 L | -19.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 79c | 153.15$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 142$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.02 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3122…9d2fbacked Yes | 22c | 121$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb66…9085backed Yes | 21c | 100.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 94.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 29c | 77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 20c | 74.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 26c | 70.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 69c | 69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 74c | 66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 227 | 71.8%163 W · 64 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…2286backed Yes | 23c | 65.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 57.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 21c | 57.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 542 | 38.9%211 W · 331 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 29c | 55.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xff42…e0ffbacked No | 74c | 54.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6199…ece4backed No | 74c | 53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 66 | 72.7%48 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 69c | 52.1$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 77c | 51.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb842…5204backed No | 79c | 50.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked Yes | 22c | 45.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 181 | 27.1%49 W · 132 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 30c | 40.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 767 | 27%207 W · 560 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…91b2backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 70c | 33.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes | 30c | 33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 78c | 30.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 80c | 30.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 79c | 25.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 72c | 24.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 85 | 76.5%65 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 77c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 235 | 46.4%109 W · 126 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 73c | 14.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 283 | 69.3%196 W · 87 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…a08bbacked No | 75c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 78c | 13.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 2,043 | 61.7%1,261 W · 782 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 39°C on August 27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.