Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ef7f263dac9e4d4277b35b36b39d4cecc531a2ea2e273a7e63ba29e470a7327
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,330
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,330 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 58c | 520$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.38 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 47c | 479.93$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.74 | 646 | 24.5%158 W · 488 L | -19.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 51c | 328.68$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.68 | 1,458 | 27.8%406 W · 1,052 L | +77.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 46c | 259.89$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.51 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 229.56$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.38 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 49c | 208.72$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.96 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e79…6a5abacked Yes | 48c | 202.77$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.22 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed No | 42c | 197.92$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.46 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked No | 32c | 196.6$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.48 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 29c | 152.43$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.6 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 31c | 146.07$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.11 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 40c | 145.24$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.02 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 122.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.46 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 46c | 122.34$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.01 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 75c | 114.86$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.15 | 1,102 | 51.7%570 W · 532 L | +74.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c80…c3ddbacked No | 43c | 109$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.13 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 50c | 105.2$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 300 | 41%123 W · 177 L | +26.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37b8…0a05backed No | 10c | 104.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.86 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d42…5bf3backed Yes | 51c | 100.94$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5238…be0dbacked Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -6.8wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 59c | 98.98$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 43c | 98.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed Yes | 57c | 97.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.74 | 131 | 37.4%49 W · 82 L | -17.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…7059backed No | 31c | 95.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.86 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 50c | 88.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.76 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 77.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.28 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 35c | 75.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.73 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 51c | 71.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb407…6eb1backed No | 51c | 59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 46c | 58.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 68c | 56.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 486 | 39.7%193 W · 293 L | +21.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cda…d7c6backed No | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 45c | 54.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 22c | 51.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 63c | 50.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 33c | 45.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +42.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 232 | 48.3%112 W · 120 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 50c | 42.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 144 | 55.6%80 W · 64 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 283 | 69.3%196 W · 87 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…adafbacked Yes | 49c | 38.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 58c | 34.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 942 | 2.4%23 W · 919 L | -388.2wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 5-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…bf4abacked Yes | 73c | 34.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Yes | 48c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0018…83a4backed No | 44c | 33.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 37c | 29.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1,154 | 25%289 W · 865 L | +30.0wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 37c | 28.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 3,426 | 31.1%1,066 W · 2,360 L | -38.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 54c | 27.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd582…68b5backed Yes | 75c | 26.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae9…1ea4backed Yes | 75c | 21.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef0…e28ebacked Yes | 55c | 20.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +4.7wins | +0.18per pick | 63cpaid | +31%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa434…cf75backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 235 | 46.4%109 W · 126 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 181 | 27.1%49 W · 132 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 56c | 19.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda61…2b5fbacked Yes | 55c | 19.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 57c | 19.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 63c | 16.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9d…d1d9backed Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 39°C on August 27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.