Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cac4411b6ee5033d949f92ba6fc108448dd0ac47799615d2be208bdd4ceb859
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,195
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 2,349$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.69 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 25c | 715.19$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.67 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 22c | 658.28$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 9c | 549.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.31 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 16c | 546.12$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.08 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 78c | 339.76$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.37 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 321.04$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 15c | 285.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 78c | 274$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.53 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 231.33$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 10c | 225$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.16 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 28c | 192.36$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 15c | 176$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 26c | 161.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 159.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2749…e996backed Yes | 19c | 155.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 66c | 149.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 146$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 76c | 135$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 21c | 134.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 131.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 25c | 124.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 15c | 113.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked Yes | 12c | 111.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 167 | 9.6%16 W · 151 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 110.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 105.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1a…2987backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80dc…7cf8backed Yes | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 23c | 98.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 26c | 95.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 15c | 88.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 15c | 88.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 25c | 85.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 25c | 85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 85$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 74c | 79.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 79c | 76$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 75.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 22c | 74.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 25c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 37c | 64.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 32c | 64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 80c | 60.29$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 22c | 56.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 72c | 54.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 24c | 48.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 43.69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 74c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 30c | 33.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 79c | 25.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 74c | 20.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 77c | 20.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 78c | 18.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 71c | 18.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.