Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77f3db4b6dc47ceb3896063e7afcfb82e26ac0a66a78561ce8f56e81fa67d4bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 21c | 6,167$1,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,283.49 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 78c | 2,500$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.7 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 25c | 1,263$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.91 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 70c | 1,080$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.91 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 22c | 825.01$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.63 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 19c | 596$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.52 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…dd17backed No | 76c | 549.49$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.58 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 73c | 467$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.05 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 25c | 465.98$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.69 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 71c | 447.96$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.14 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 76c | 423.84$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.82 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 77c | 419.12$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.51 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 31c | 413.72$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.98 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 75c | 401.13$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.57 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 80c | 397.66$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.76 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 72c | 370.76$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.32 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 24c | 350$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.57 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 24c | 342.04$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.52 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 302.07$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…5668backed Yes | 39c | 263.74$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.12 | 96 | 17.7%17 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 236$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd2…c304backed Yes | 18c | 233.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 160 | 38.8%62 W · 98 L | +18.0wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +123.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 217.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 17c | 215.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 208$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.65 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 190$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 189.78$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 26c | 180$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 16c | 170.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 167.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 159.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 20c | 155.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 72c | 154$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 25c | 151.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2377…c69cbacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 17%9 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 25c | 150$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed Yes | 25c | 147$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 234 | 29.1%68 W · 166 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 67c | 140$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked No | 67c | 140$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 19c | 139.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 72c | 138.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 25c | 123.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 22c | 123$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 114.49$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 18c | 112.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 35c | 112$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 25c | 110$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 27c | 105.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82d8…03eabacked Yes | 22c | 103.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 116 | 12.1%14 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 101.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19cc…3ea3backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 20c | 91.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…67bebacked Yes | 23c | 88.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda18…c74ebacked Yes | 43c | 85.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b4…5199backed Yes | 21c | 85.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 79$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 72c | 78.57$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 59c | 68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 19c | 61.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b2…7ce9backed Yes | 20c | 58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 23c | 57.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 77c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes | 27c | 54.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3727…85d4backed Yes | 19c | 54.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 76c | 53.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 78c | 53.04$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 77c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 25c | 41.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 41.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 76c | 34.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 79c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6265…c059backed No | 64c | 31.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 76c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 72c | 25.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…005cbacked No | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 22.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x962b…6d5abacked No | 64c | 21.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250a…c9adbacked No | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 66c | 20.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…ca22backed No | 76c | 20.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 76c | 18.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 68c | 16.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.