Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd81b744195c393d205c1d1479f0ff04c498200225d3aef475a36c5d80c62fa3e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,539
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,539 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 29c | 2,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.98 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 65c | 1,117$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.12 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 50c | 881.74$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.36 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 60c | 733.84$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.01 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 27c | 677.87$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.02 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 52c | 484.86$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.86 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 458.12$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.88 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 49c | 409.33$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.75 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 53c | 349.99$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.53 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 44c | 335$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.18 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 33c | 302.14$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.29 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 7c | 286.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 77c | 286.11$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.38 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 56c | 284.3$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.3 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…a971backed Yes | 53c | 232.25$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.19 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 77c | 225.86$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.36 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 215.1$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 49c | 209.5$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.3 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84a3…5f08backed Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 51c | 202$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.07 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 197.12$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.93 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 53c | 195$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.86 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 45c | 189.78$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.71 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 50c | 188.23$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.12 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 37c | 186$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 183.87$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 43c | 181.27$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.41 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc60a…3122backed No | 48c | 177.51$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.95 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 46c | 167.55$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.58 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 49c | 162.95$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 41c | 160$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 44c | 155$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 42c | 152.14$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.21 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 44c | 148.75$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.91 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 51c | 139.64$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.22 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed Yes | 50c | 138.31$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.84 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 75c | 133.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 68c | 127$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 50c | 124$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.76 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbf…d779backed Yes | 50c | 120.67$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.67 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2334…cd00backed Yes | 59c | 120$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 69c | 118.56$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 116$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 33c | 110$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…547dbacked Yes | 50c | 109.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.56 | 173 | 52%90 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 47c | 109.49$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.53 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 73c | 104.89$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 51c | 103$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80dc…7cf8backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 64c | 99.56$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 67c | 95.15$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 48c | 94.48$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.79 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 59c | 94.41$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ce…83a4backed No | 47c | 92.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 67c | 92.59$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 52c | 87.6$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…d9b3backed Yes | 57c | 86.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 119 | 27.7%33 W · 86 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7071…91dfbacked No | 46c | 76.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -6.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 76.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…6968backed Yes | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 75c | 66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 49c | 65.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 61.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 36c | 61.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 60.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 57c | 60.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.79 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302b…7a54backed Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…baa0backed Yes | 59c | 59.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 38c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51a…67aabacked No | 53c | 53.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -5.8wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…9f83backed Yes | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 84 | 76.2%64 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 67c | 50.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85aa…691bbacked No | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 43.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 47c | 42.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…f2c9backed Yes | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 50c | 39.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 75c | 39.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 152 | 70.4%107 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 53c | 37.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 51c | 37.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…f218backed Yes | 52c | 37.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…4be3backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 60c | 35.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 53c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 40c | 33.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 75c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 55c | 33.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6847…f1eabacked No | 52c | 33.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…ac1abacked Yes | 67c | 33.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed No | 40c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…144dbacked No | 46c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -19.6wins | -0.33per pick | 59cpaid | -61%equal weight | 24-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…896ebacked Yes | 53c | 28.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 38c | 28.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850f…b208backed No | 53c | 28.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 94 | 60.6%57 W · 37 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.