Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cc201d4fcc590cafd22ef63b4e80a4b16cc3d4919ff02c407ff273e9a334451
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 41c | 1,345$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.82 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 19c | 663.85$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.85 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf591…b8c7backed Yes | 40c | 450$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 62c | 415.07$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.09 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 381.87$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.03 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 361.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.74 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 30c | 320$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.4 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 33c | 315.21$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.78 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 281.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 251$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.76 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 17c | 249.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 11c | 243.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 238.75$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.24 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 188$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 26c | 182.65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 14c | 171.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 22c | 170$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 23c | 169$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 65c | 167.47$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.36 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 24c | 155.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 155.61$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 25c | 155$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 23c | 153.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 39c | 153.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 80c | 151.71$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 33c | 139$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 45c | 120.78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 21c | 119$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 57c | 117$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.91 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…6505backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 68c | 96.15$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 93.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 20c | 87.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 42c | 86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 85.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 23c | 71.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 64c | 69.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 22c | 69.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 45c | 65.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 79c | 63.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed Yes | 35c | 56.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…d08cbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 68c | 54.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 20c | 51.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…d63cbacked No | 60c | 50.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 40c | 50.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 59c | 50.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 48.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 42c | 40.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 31c | 39.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 37.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 73c | 36.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 79c | 31.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 60c | 31.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 72c | 28.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 47c | 27.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03b5…c585backed No | 56c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 44c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa657…31a1backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 58c | 24.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 23.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 22.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 76c | 20.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 69c | 14.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 86°F or higher on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.