Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46db14534cdee8080e9d63eff4bd71c57d711bb847f642043719060aee2c8ab5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 38c | 1,575$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.42 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 38c | 825.36$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.92 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 36c | 726.03$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.78 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 44c | 706.27$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.13 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 37c | 623.3$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 563.95$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.19 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked No | 62c | 550$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.5 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…d8b2backed Yes | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…aa45backed No | 3c | 472.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 426.86$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.01 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 61c | 409.48$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.73 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a36…f270backed Yes | 42c | 400$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 54c | 397.76$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.39 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 392.53$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 329.28$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 27c | 309.36$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.6 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 40c | 297.02$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.02 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d98…261ebacked Yes | 51c | 275.27$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.89 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 251$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.64 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 12c | 245.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 40c | 239.35$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.68 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 38c | 238.74$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 62c | 218.01$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.04 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 56c | 208.85$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.12 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…3925backed No | 62c | 175.01$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.87 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 62c | 172.92$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.25 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 58c | 172.72$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.91 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 41c | 169.43$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.43 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 64c | 159.27$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.67 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 65c | 153.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 153.07$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.53 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 40c | 152$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.27 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 33c | 150.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.78 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 60c | 142.38$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.09 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 43c | 140$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 43c | 137.2$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 136.05$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.81 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 46c | 130$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.38 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 38c | 129.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 61c | 123.88$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.17 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 37c | 112$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 53c | 111.31$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.98 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 110.48$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 76c | 109.7$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 61c | 108.77$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.93 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 102.46$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…d63cbacked No | 62c | 100.77$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 60c | 94.95$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 46c | 94.36$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.37 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 60c | 76.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 62c | 70$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x233a…0858backed Yes | 74c | 64.7$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 39c | 63.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 59c | 62.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 63c | 62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…6060backed No | 63c | 61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 57c | 60.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 34c | 57.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 62c | 56.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 38c | 56.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 34c | 52.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 36c | 52.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 37c | 51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 58c | 51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 32c | 49.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 36c | 49.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed No | 58c | 48.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 186 | 29.6%55 W · 131 L | -15.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa53…02a8backed Yes | 39c | 48.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86a9…9642backed Yes | 43c | 45.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 63c | 43.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 70c | 42.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fd…e7dcbacked Yes | 47c | 42.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…f288backed Yes | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7576…82debacked No | 62c | 41.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 65c | 40.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 33c | 37.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 37c | 35.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 65c | 35.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…3d1ebacked Yes | 44c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 66c | 34.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…81a3backed Yes | 46c | 32.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 52c | 28.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2af3…bcb4backed No | 63c | 28.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 27.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 86°F or higher on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.