Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cda4d3bc3a31b9688a3478410af3323ef5d641cb4eca34b3bbf0cd5d0bc6e23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 436.92$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 36c | 400.48$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.48 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 35c | 347.46$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.09 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 299.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 58c | 292$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.36 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 285.21$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.48 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 46c | 240.09$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.67 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 215.47$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.97 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 210$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.72 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 37c | 204$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.54 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked No | 63c | 189.17$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.61 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 153.91$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 70c | 142.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 139.95$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.82 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 65c | 138.4$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.5 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 125$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.75 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 53c | 122.82$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.17 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 109.56$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.88 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 77c | 107.69$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.89 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 105$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 100.1$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 93.81$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.15 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed No | 53c | 86.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 46c | 86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.82 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 81.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 69c | 80$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 53c | 75.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 75c | 70.37$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 68.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 62c | 61.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 46c | 56.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 29c | 54.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 28c | 52.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.93 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 59c | 52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked No | 78c | 50.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 50c | 49.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 68c | 49.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 63c | 49.05$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 75c | 48.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 65c | 44.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 43.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…c740backed Yes | 46c | 43.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 42.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 37c | 35.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3dd…81b2backed Yes | 59c | 34.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 43c | 32.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 61c | 32.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 28.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 42c | 28.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aba…9a6dbacked Yes | 72c | 27.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 27.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 54c | 26.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 57c | 25.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 62c | 25.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 56c | 24.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 51c | 23.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 23.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 73c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 78c | 20.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 55c | 20.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ce…3c70backed No | 53c | 19.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 62c | 17.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.