Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x97b4d4486201b4072318606a5e7649b01794b841048df39699dbaae070c3a5f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,688
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 44c | 1,221$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.39 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 48c | 407.95$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked Yes | 39c | 298.81$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.08 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 48c | 296.53$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.71 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 273.64$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.67 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 49c | 260.48$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 231.92$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.05 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 54c | 221.05$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.44 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x233a…0858backed Yes | 41c | 217.68$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.01 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 21c | 212.34$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 56c | 209.67$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.26 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed No | 63c | 193.79$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.76 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…96bdbacked No | 52c | 192.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.94 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 192.49$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 53c | 184.08$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.22 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 47c | 155.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 149.64$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.63 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 54c | 148.22$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.18 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 145.19$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.06 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 56c | 144.03$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.03 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 136.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…85b3backed No | 55c | 116.73$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 53c | 113.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.57 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 34c | 111.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 45c | 111.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 77c | 109.93$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 104.8$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 50c | 104$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed No | 73c | 101.23$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed No | 50c | 100.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 47c | 99.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 53c | 96.48$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 52c | 91$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 56c | 89.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 46c | 85.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 66c | 85.17$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 65c | 82.75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 52c | 81$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 79.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed Yes | 19c | 79.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed No | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 51c | 73.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 36c | 72.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 52c | 68.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 71c | 68.24$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 50c | 67.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec34…b109backed Yes | 49c | 65.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 57c | 65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 49c | 61.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 44c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e1…f420backed No | 55c | 53.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 67c | 46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 50c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…27b5backed No | 71c | 45.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 51c | 43.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 49c | 41.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a0…8595backed Yes | 48c | 39.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 50c | 38.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 52c | 38.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 54c | 37.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 59c | 35.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…1085backed Yes | 46c | 34.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed No | 68c | 34.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…b6c5backed No | 79c | 31.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 183 | 47%86 W · 97 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c50…2b78backed Yes | 51c | 29.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 41c | 29.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 40c | 28.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…fc14backed Yes | 48c | 28.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 203 | 47.8%97 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed Yes | 49c | 28.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a60…ea7dbacked Yes | 52c | 27.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6f76backed No | 52c | 26.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 44c | 26.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94de…e3cabacked No | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 24.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked No | 56c | 24.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 50c | 22.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 53c | 22.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 61c | 21.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 55c | 20.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 55c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on August 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.