NHL · resolved market
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d1f81a7ed4a76afafe3a7e3b649578703355c8ef08284fa9f9064757045901e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hurricanesof Hurricanes, Penguins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $250,227
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $250,227 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9976…67dabacked Hurricanes | 37c | 245,888$90,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154,935.13 | 198 | 48.5%96 W · 102 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Penguins | 63c | 149,408$94,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94,127.17 | 403 | 51.9%209 W · 194 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Penguins | 63c | 47,619$30,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,000 | 243 | 49.8%121 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Penguins | 63c | 18,864$11,884 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,884.33 | 218 | 50.9%111 W · 107 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Penguins | 63c | 17,500$11,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,025 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Penguins | 63c | 7,115$4,482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,482.42 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Penguins | 64c | 1,110$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.4 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Penguins | 63c | 1,035$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.36 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4d…ae93backed Penguins | 55c | 999.98$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Penguins | 64c | 721.81$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.96 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Penguins | 63c | 667$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.21 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed Penguins | 66c | 600$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Hurricanes | 45c | 563.37$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.26 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Penguins | 63c | 500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Penguins | 64c | 400$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Hurricanes | 34c | 359.85$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.5 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc58a…b8f8backed Penguins | 64c | 294.14$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.25 | 152 | 45.4%69 W · 83 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Hurricanes | 45c | 270.19$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.61 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Penguins | 63c | 223.43$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.6 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Hurricanes | 44c | 204.11$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.32 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a8…d8cdbacked Penguins | 57c | 151.34$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.46 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Penguins | 63c | 148.84$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.77 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…86d2backed Hurricanes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Penguins | 64c | 139.03$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.98 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54ae…a0d1backed Penguins | 54c | 94.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Hurricanes | 37c | 85.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Penguins | 54c | 78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62ff…ec56backed Penguins | 63c | 74.7$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 129 | 47.3%61 W · 68 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Penguins | 63c | 72.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Penguins | 60c | 64.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Hurricanes | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Penguins | 49c | 59.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Penguins | 64c | 59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Hurricanes | 46c | 55.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Hurricanes | 48c | 46.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 127 | 63.8%81 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9198…f83ebacked Penguins | 64c | 45.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Hurricanes | 77c | 45.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f04…6a54backed Penguins | 55c | 38.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Hurricanes | 45c | 37.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 470 | 24%113 W · 357 L | -44.6wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9208…7d22backed Penguins | 66c | 37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d81…360ebacked Penguins | 64c | 26.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Penguins | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Penguins | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Penguins | 65c | 15.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)this page
- Hurricanes vs. PenguinsHurricanes won
- Hurricanes vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Hurricanes vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Hurricanes vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Hurricanes vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.