NHL · resolved market
Hurricanes vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x542585c3a52ae29429dd86bc3505073e8f2cc5e1512a8841e69fb635b18638d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,584 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 37c | 829.84$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.04 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 51c | 665.5$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.65 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 69c | 555.65$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.6 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e33…1482backed Over | 50c | 510.28$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.14 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 64c | 396$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.42 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea1…f17ebacked Under | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Over | 49c | 275.67$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.81 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 64c | 225$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.58 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Under | 46c | 170.58$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ec…7b98backed Over | 66c | 164.28$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.3 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Over | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…f74abacked Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 122 | 52.5%64 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -13%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…702dbacked Over | 50c | 150.64$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.64 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 45c | 136.38$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.96 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…30fcbacked Over | 65c | 127.69$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 60c | 124.34$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.58 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Under | 65c | 118$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.08 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 63c | 111$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 36c | 106.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Over | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 279 | 57.7%161 W · 118 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 35c | 93.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 42c | 93.3$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 36c | 88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 37c | 87.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 38c | 84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 77c | 80.67$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 64c | 80.54$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 46c | 79.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 58c | 76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x714d…6e05backed Over | 75c | 73.66$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 36c | 72.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 37c | 68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 60c | 54.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x306f…01c7backed Over | 64c | 46.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f5…0688backed Under | 44c | 44.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 62c | 31.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 272 | 50%136 W · 136 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 56c | 29.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 127 | 63.8%81 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 51c | 29.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 59c | 25.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 54c | 23.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…2269backed Over | 51c | 20.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +6.7wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hurricanes vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5this page
- Hurricanes vs. PenguinsHurricanes won
- Hurricanes vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5Over won
- Hurricanes vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Hurricanes vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)Hurricanes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.