NFL · resolved market
Broncos vs. 49ers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d3b1677cd523cc3cacd84cbaad9d68f17bb342477f6629fad4cb30d261f5142
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Broncosof Broncos, 49ers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,244
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,244 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed0e…b305backed 49ers | 4c | 2,668$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.71 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed 49ers | 28c | 801.25$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.21 | 133 | 35.3%47 W · 86 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Broncos | 72c | 744.42$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.44 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Broncos | 72c | 686.15$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.18 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed 49ers | 3c | 655.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 431 | 1.6%7 W · 424 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed 49ers | 47c | 634.85$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Broncos | 55c | 618.22$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.98 | 195 | 51.3%100 W · 95 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae76…dce5backed Broncos | 74c | 561.22$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.91 | 273 | 39.2%107 W · 166 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c12…1937backed Broncos | 72c | 503.82$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.07 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f328backed 49ers | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…d9d7backed 49ers | 29c | 400$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed Broncos | 76c | 378.17$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.66 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Broncos | 73c | 370.97$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.16 | 143 | 66.4%95 W · 48 L | +13.0wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed 49ers | 28c | 358.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 330 | 47.9%158 W · 172 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked 49ers | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked 49ers | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Broncos | 72c | 357.14$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed 49ers | 26c | 334.3$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.92 | 121 | 33.9%41 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Broncos | 71c | 270.99$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.59 | 143 | 42%60 W · 83 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked 49ers | 5c | 220$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 196 | 9.2%18 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed 49ers | 29c | 206.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…393ebacked 49ers | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…d9dfbacked Broncos | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed 49ers | 18c | 199.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 278 | 35.3%98 W · 180 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed 49ers | 26c | 199.61$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…486cbacked 49ers | 26c | 196.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.19 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +522.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed 49ers | 27c | 147$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.69 | 207 | 60.9%126 W · 81 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ac…091ebacked Broncos | 75c | 135.17$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked 49ers | 53c | 130$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed 49ers | 27c | 129.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed 49ers | 27c | 110$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Broncos | 71c | 109.15$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Broncos | 54c | 105$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11c1…7fe5backed 49ers | 60c | 104.18$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked 49ers | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…0d6abacked 49ers | 27c | 98.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…8507backed 49ers | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Broncos | 74c | 85.26$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0627…1ecabacked 49ers | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x107a…4bc4backed 49ers | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.39per pick | 39cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed 49ers | 15c | 70.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 310 | 56.8%176 W · 134 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Broncos | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed 49ers | 27c | 63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e8…bf07backed Broncos | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Broncos | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd4…e888backed Broncos | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 75cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Broncos | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked 49ers | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Broncos | 52c | 33.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0704…6ab8backed Broncos | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 64cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Broncos | 71c | 23.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3f…4ceabacked Broncos | 74c | 23.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0c…3af9backed Broncos | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.