Fifa International · resolved market
Paraguay leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d43b80850eefea16096f9d3a0bbb7e318ccc5000bebd049e78dc1b8d18bc389
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 27c | 9,368$2,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,521.54 | 2,271 | 39.5%896 W · 1,375 L | +10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 21c | 5,708$1,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.73 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 73c | 3,288$2,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.43 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 27c | 999.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 549 | 17.9%98 W · 451 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed No | 72c | 926.13$667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.32 | 864 | 52.7%455 W · 409 L | +26.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 73c | 885.09$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.59 | 2,819 | 44.5%1,255 W · 1,564 L | -36.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Yes | 27c | 852$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.04 | 1,985 | 32.5%645 W · 1,340 L | -47.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 15c | 685.5$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.39 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked No | 72c | 488.36$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.74 | 706 | 48.2%340 W · 366 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked No | 73c | 394.51$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.52 | 1,536 | 49.1%754 W · 782 L | +32.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddbb…32afbacked Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 127 | 26.8%34 W · 93 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae1…1e7ebacked Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 228 | 46.9%107 W · 121 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec0…9bddbacked Yes | 16c | 355.21$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 626 | 33.9%212 W · 414 L | -28.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 73c | 341.21$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 73c | 312$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.64 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Yes | 14c | 308.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 483 | 28%135 W · 348 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5619…d1f6backed Yes | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -7.6wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2e22…9fa5backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 318 | 9.4%30 W · 288 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Yes | 15c | 295.09$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 260$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 460 | 47.2%217 W · 243 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaec…32a1backed Yes | 27c | 240$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 294 | 30.3%89 W · 205 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed No | 73c | 228.05$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.57 | 1,005 | 44.3%445 W · 560 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6082…3323backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x323b…df9abacked Yes | 28c | 170.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…9a30backed Yes | 28c | 125$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 281 | 27.8%78 W · 203 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 122.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x751f…e4ddbacked Yes | 17c | 104$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 879 | 38.6%339 W · 540 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed No | 74c | 101.33$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 489 | 37%181 W · 308 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaea…95a9backed Yes | 28c | 96.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…6e47backed Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 150 | 42%63 W · 87 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd54e…2e45backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…fe16backed Yes | 28c | 69.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 84 | 29.8%25 W · 59 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…44c1backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5089…0a3abacked No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…45ecbacked Yes | 27c | 42.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa135…68b8backed No | 73c | 42.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 322 | 45.3%146 W · 176 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce0…df67backed Yes | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 462 | 43.5%201 W · 261 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed No | 77c | 24.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 1,459 | 53.9%787 W · 672 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d7…f41abacked No | 74c | 21.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 257 | 48.6%125 W · 132 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…23b0backed No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c34…266dbacked No | 73c | 20.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.62 | 256 | 55.1%141 W · 115 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked No | 73c | 14.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 365 | 58.4%213 W · 152 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paraguay leading at halftime?this page
- Australia leading at halftime?No won
- Paraguay vs. Australia: Draw at halftime?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.