Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d4e3d6d04f68495c08a1aeab96355ba456072cdf1dd3ed9b0bd87be4f9daf31
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 71c | 5,151$3,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,513.69 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 3,281$1,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,684.54 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Over | 34c | 3,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…81a0backed Over | 70c | 2,615$1,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,830.28 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Over | 32c | 687.68$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.06 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 54c | 525.93$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.69 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 48c | 518.37$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7de…4d6dbacked Over | 53c | 400$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 66c | 340$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.6 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 37c | 323.53$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.71 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xacb5…d643backed Over | 33c | 315.62$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.15 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 67c | 279.61$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.72 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 25c | 274.49$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.87 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 75c | 228.12$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.29 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 45c | 202$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.84 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…c01dbacked Over | 51c | 194.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 32c | 190.47$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.95 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 60c | 182.42$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.35 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecc7…01e0backed Over | 33c | 153.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54ee…1943backed Under | 36c | 143.67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.95 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…a948backed Over | 34c | 129.41$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf121…6903backed Over | 23c | 126.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 34c | 105.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Under | 67c | 93$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Over | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Over | 53c | 75.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…f7aebacked Under | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 26c | 64.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 53c | 63.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 49c | 62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f8…5486backed Over | 31c | 55.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc884…a4e6backed Over | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…48cfbacked Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1c…c864backed Over | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 53c | 45.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked Under | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecc…47cbbacked Over | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bd…0da6backed Over | 33c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Under | 69c | 36.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…fcb4backed Over | 33c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 62c | 31.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…ce65backed Over | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb906…2a75backed Under | 68c | 29.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 51c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec4…58a9backed Under | 67c | 27.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd7…88d8backed Under | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 66cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x00b9…4ca6backed Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 3.5this page
- SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Köln: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. 1. FC Köln: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.