Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d7b88247f73b91118d602259205cd3371f0a21bfd83937b99388fbd25835f05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 41c | 1,316$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.6 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…e5c8backed Yes | 2c | 1,309$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 3c | 1,070$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 2c | 751.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 41c | 499.85$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 58c | 402.11$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.78 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 357.42$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.54 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 3c | 335.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 42c | 294.47$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.32 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 285.21$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.16 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 8c | 277$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 75c | 268.69$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.58 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 39c | 251.54$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.14 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 246$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.4 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 59c | 241$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.81 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked No | 59c | 235.83$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.82 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 232.5$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.16 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 20c | 199.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 61c | 175.3$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.72 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 58c | 159.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.19 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 8c | 146.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 39c | 143.93$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.19 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 133.66$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.78 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 60c | 130.71$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.64 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 40c | 121.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 41c | 109.15$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 101.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 15c | 99.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 58c | 82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a5…abfdbacked No | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.08 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 77.88$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec34…b109backed Yes | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd4…6084backed Yes | 43c | 69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 61c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 60c | 52.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa747…bebcbacked No | 61c | 49.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…485fbacked Yes | 36c | 46.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 41c | 46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 24c | 42.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 61c | 41.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d4…f843backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 39c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 41c | 37.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 41c | 36.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…f3cebacked No | 61c | 32.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 61c | 31.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 30.02$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 33c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0d…849cbacked No | 57c | 28.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x537e…a602backed No | 60c | 27.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 27.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 61c | 23.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 68c | 19.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 60c | 19.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.