TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,571
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,024

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,571 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x297a…3dd8backed Yes78c510.08$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.085040%20 W · 30 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No80c361.52$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.8619060.5%115 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No48c331.22$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.184,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No58c271.66$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.712,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes12c262.87$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.581,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes27c262$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.451,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No61c252.88$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.714,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62d3…e694backed Yes74c244.11$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.8516135.4%57 W · 104 L-12.0wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No46c232.86$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.915,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No63c215.84$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.9112,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9314…db74backed Yes14c209.75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.3426025%65 W · 195 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-22.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes45c206.38$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.434,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes52c177.7$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.171,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes16c156.57$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.9814919.5%29 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes78c147.41$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.582,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9248…6955backed Yes31c143.17$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.296442.2%27 W · 37 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf733…297dbacked Yes12c127.54$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.7817511.4%20 W · 155 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick12cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No31c116.11$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.621,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No43c110.79$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7395852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5824…7307backed Yes38c110$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.195271.2%37 W · 15 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+18.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No13c104.08$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.534,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd50c…3360backed No51c102.99$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0128142%118 W · 163 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6546…04e1backed Yes51c101.92$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.9237144.2%164 W · 207 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c30…b668backed Yes50c100.68$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.6815940.3%64 W · 95 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7342…d5b4backed No49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.6415966.7%106 W · 53 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Yes61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3949646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No64c95.87$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.3412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes56c95.62$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.553,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6394…485fbacked Yes29c91.34$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.214238.1%16 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No46c87.75$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.74,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a338backed Yes42c82.42$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.8229037.9%110 W · 180 L+29.1wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+25.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes14c82.3$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.382,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No53c75.92$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.514,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No51c75.88$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.834,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes59c75.36$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0281855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec34…b109backed Yes55c74.99$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.853240.6%13 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes31c74.52$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.62,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No53c74.28$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.462,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x41e5…e283backed No55c70.95$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.671,28256.7%727 W · 555 L-28.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4d1…1733backed No52c70.28$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3321338.5%82 W · 131 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd498…a6c5backed Yes51c66.61$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.851,71047.8%818 W · 892 L-48.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac64…866ebacked No69c66.6$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9771057.9%411 W · 299 L+1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf71a…fa40backed Yes53c60.71$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3119042.6%81 W · 109 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No47c57.98$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.423,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65ce…6ff8backed No47c53.87$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3219345.6%88 W · 105 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes49c51$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.96,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed No64c51$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.41,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x44a5…abfdbacked No52c50.05$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.851250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-16.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes55c43.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2025342.3%107 W · 146 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23db…cf1cbacked Yes55c43.31$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.312450%12 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No45c43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.271,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde0a…004ebacked Yes52c40.64$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3228368.6%194 W · 89 L-0.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79d9…9275backed No49c39.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7238560.3%232 W · 153 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No50c39.01$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.344,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2307…2162backed Yes52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.465058%29 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes47c37.26$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.7546148.8%225 W · 236 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x234c…90dbbacked Yes54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0458138.9%226 W · 355 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes50c37$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5566758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes52c34.02$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.55,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No32c33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6128163.7%179 W · 102 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No49c32$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.521,01058.1%587 W · 423 L-34.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7aed…df39backed No37c31.64$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7735063.1%221 W · 129 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes47c31.62$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.6352446.2%242 W · 282 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No47c31.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.836,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x64f8…eec6backed Yes49c30.23$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.442373.9%17 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No47c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.24,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb07e…e682backed No49c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.825868.2%176 W · 82 L+0.2wins0.00per pick68cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93cc…454ebacked Yes78c28.46$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1525541.2%105 W · 150 L+22.4wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xec62…9191backed Yes53c28.07$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.071,10240.7%448 W · 654 L+18.7wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7eec…c8edbacked No39c27.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7719769.5%137 W · 60 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes54c27.78$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7815347.1%72 W · 81 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No46c27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.355,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No79c25.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2376059.2%450 W · 310 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa595…cdf1backed Yes75c25.43$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4315561.9%96 W · 59 L+0.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes52c25.42$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.212,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes51c23.72$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.629,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No49c23.4$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.541,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No55c22.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.339262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0x03e1…e180backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1033350.2%167 W · 166 L-11.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cb8…7809backed No52c19.94$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3713554.1%73 W · 62 L-0.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e3e…c58bbacked No59c16.95$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105064%32 W · 18 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick70cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.