TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
ex-HEROICof BetBoom Team, ex-HEROIC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$500,944
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$510,946

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $500,944 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 279 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked BetBoom Team0c125,969$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.9789749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed BetBoom Team64c47,601$30,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,5001,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed BetBoom Team0c36,085$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9545139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed ex-HEROIC79c28,351$22,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,883.2427153.5%145 W · 126 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed BetBoom Team1c19,926$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.673554.3%19 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed BetBoom Team0c19,595$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.496132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3837…c6b0backed BetBoom Team70c15,997$11,198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,198.08560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick70cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked BetBoom Team0c15,004$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1525446.1%117 W · 137 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed ex-HEROIC35c14,355$5,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,341.4656955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed ex-HEROIC36c13,900$4,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,907.5836248.6%176 W · 186 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked ex-HEROIC30c10,656$3,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,459.5389341.5%371 W · 522 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e04…28a9backed BetBoom Team0c10,309$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3117651.1%90 W · 86 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed ex-HEROIC30c10,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,00033746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked BetBoom Team67c9,973$6,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,7231,19759.2%709 W · 488 L+63.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3e3b…be27backed BetBoom Team0c7,777$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5521047.6%100 W · 110 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked BetBoom Team1c7,168$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9377258.5%452 W · 320 L+74.8wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed ex-HEROIC32c6,807$2,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,628.7341056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked ex-HEROIC37c6,740$2,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,268.591,17943.1%508 W · 671 L+41.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed BetBoom Team34c6,472$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20035062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x6a7a…6c9abacked BetBoom Team1c6,269$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4917644.9%79 W · 97 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-10.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf054…eae7backed ex-HEROIC34c5,813$1,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,831.7412557.6%72 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9a11…eb9dbacked BetBoom Team40c5,031$2,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,005.7116945%76 W · 93 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked BetBoom Team1c5,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.491756.5%518 W · 399 L+79.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed ex-HEROIC49c4,481$2,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,299.9450449.2%248 W · 256 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed ex-HEROIC33c3,636$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,436.1241351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed BetBoom Team65c3,413$2,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,221.4869644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x949e…20afbacked BetBoom Team1c3,036$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.993125.8%8 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-23.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c93…2079backed ex-HEROIC40c3,027$1,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,812.223562.9%22 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed BetBoom Team1c2,602$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7722727.3%62 W · 165 L-9.7wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed ex-HEROIC28c2,154$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,547.3481029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed ex-HEROIC34c2,150$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,415.6735151.3%180 W · 171 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked BetBoom Team67c2,000$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,339.9965863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked ex-HEROIC53c1,801$946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$855.271,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37b5…0ddabacked BetBoom Team55c1,780$978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$978.21861.1%11 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick68cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked ex-HEROIC33c1,526$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.4235951.3%184 W · 175 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked ex-HEROIC31c1,522$471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,050.669235.3%244 W · 448 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86ed…c1e5backed BetBoom Team65c1,500$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9751225%3 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-46.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked BetBoom Team40c1,377$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.561,27045.1%573 W · 697 L-10.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed BetBoom Team44c1,273$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.182,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked ex-HEROIC33c1,250$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.560646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed ex-HEROIC52c1,157$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.711,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked BetBoom Team25c1,102$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.9210833.3%36 W · 72 L-7.1wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-39.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked ex-HEROIC63c1,091$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.721,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked ex-HEROIC50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50041055.6%228 W · 182 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed ex-HEROIC31c1,000$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69065441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed ex-HEROIC48c999.99$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52053764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed BetBoom Team64c999.99$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.9960349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed ex-HEROIC51c917.25$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.8945352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed BetBoom Team66c871$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.8688539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f31…a362backed BetBoom Team60c861.1$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.5116558.2%96 W · 69 L-0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d0…d9e8backed ex-HEROIC48c820$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.411346.9%53 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0f0…26edbacked BetBoom Team66c805.86$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.633867.8%229 W · 109 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cd2…f5c4backed BetBoom Team69c800$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5527864.1%50 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2662…3f84backed BetBoom Team63c794.68$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50014562.1%90 W · 55 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed ex-HEROIC72c782.63$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.4934468.9%237 W · 107 L+26.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x625f…d53abacked BetBoom Team41c781.71$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid+8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8833…3ea1backed ex-HEROIC31c773.77$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.641844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked ex-HEROIC61c768.48$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.2999844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed BetBoom Team44c754.29$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.8954246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24b5…e607backed BetBoom Team53c745.39$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.422737%10 W · 17 L-4.3wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-24.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2469…4812backed ex-HEROIC45c725.27$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.562733.3%9 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec92…6b59backed ex-HEROIC31c700$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4831216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-24.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked BetBoom Team72c680.99$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.3161057.9%353 W · 257 L+2.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0520…3efdbacked ex-HEROIC74c678$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.68868.2%60 W · 28 L+7.0wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+11%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9a0e…2330backed ex-HEROIC32c659.96$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.785639.3%22 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xace6…5556backed BetBoom Team50c598.25$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30023347.2%110 W · 123 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-11.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed BetBoom Team70c554.3$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.6712536%45 W · 80 L-11.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-23.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf6ee…0e41backed BetBoom Team29c520$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.520448%98 W · 106 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc214…105dbacked ex-HEROIC35c508.93$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.0548843.6%213 W · 275 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed BetBoom Team29c503.58$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.3758742.8%251 W · 336 L-26.8wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-26%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed ex-HEROIC31c500.01$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.6880544.6%359 W · 446 L-25.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2aa7…003fbacked BetBoom Team44c500$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.7645052.4%236 W · 214 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed ex-HEROIC29c499.99$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.9929143.6%127 W · 164 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed BetBoom Team11c499.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5596245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked ex-HEROIC34c499.98$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.9912452.4%65 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56b3…2c42backed BetBoom Team40c499.95$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.987452.7%39 W · 35 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed BetBoom Team61c491.8$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30049952.9%264 W · 235 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44dd…f476backed BetBoom Team43c488.65$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.121735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-45.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked BetBoom Team31c484.88$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.4252638.4%202 W · 324 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-32.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed BetBoom Team25c453.85$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.8114940.9%61 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5b5…205abacked ex-HEROIC69c434.44$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.4431953.9%172 W · 147 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x90ab…2453backed BetBoom Team70c432.94$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.062528%7 W · 18 L-4.9wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-45.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe6a9…3ba4backed BetBoom Team58c431.24$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8528…44edbacked ex-HEROIC29c428$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x682c…ef07backed BetBoom Team48c416.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2009946.5%46 W · 53 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed BetBoom Team67c415.4$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.7319242.7%82 W · 110 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c82…5a52backed BetBoom Team60c400$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24023459%138 W · 96 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfe3…19ddbacked ex-HEROIC31c400$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+53.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x354a…c9d1backed ex-HEROIC30c400$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280580%4 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.38per pick42cpaid+143.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x59e2…1c55backed BetBoom Team41c400$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.447348.2%228 W · 245 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1da…7bfbbacked BetBoom Team69c400$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb61d…587bbacked BetBoom Team68c399.99$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-41.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb28…02bbbacked BetBoom Team67c390.34$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.049352.7%49 W · 44 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed ex-HEROIC61c376.57$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.4350353.9%271 W · 232 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xece2…6f5fbacked ex-HEROIC29c358$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked ex-HEROIC67c354.25$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.221,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed BetBoom Team20c351.66$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7167932.5%221 W · 458 L-27.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ece…b6b5backed ex-HEROIC29c338$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41a5…75bbbacked ex-HEROIC30c333.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.3361249.7%304 W · 308 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5c2…4933backed ex-HEROIC31c315.62$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.034035%14 W · 26 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+12.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.